← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan test-fired an extended-range version of the indigenously developed Fatah-IV ground-launched cruise missile. Dawn - Home · 6 Oct 2026Pakistan successfully tests launch of extended-range Fatah-IV cruise missile: ISPR
- Andhra Pradesh police arrested an Indian Navy employee and contractor for allegedly leaking sensitive base data to Pakistan. Times of India · 6 Oct 202613 Navy personnel under scanner in Pakistan-linked espionage probeHindustan Times · 6 Oct 2026Pakistani spy module honey-trapped many, including Navy sailor, in Andhra Pradesh: CopsHindustan Times · 6 Oct 2026Navy staff among 2 arrested in Andhra Pradesh for sharing sensitive defence information with Pakistan: ‘Shared OTP, communicated with them’
- Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar warned that denying water shares under the Indus Waters Treaty threatens regional security. Dawn - Home · 6 Oct 2026Dar warns of 'serious implications' for regional peace, security if Pakistan deprived of water share under IWT
- The Indian government appointed Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, a veteran of Operation Sindoor, as Chief of Air Staff. Hindustan Times · 6 Oct 2026Operations Safed Sagar, Sindoor veteran, Air Marshal Ashutosh Dixit, named new Indian Air Force chief, to take charge on Oct 31
- Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey agreed to deploy rapid forces in Saudi Arabia under the Makkah pact. Dawn - Home · 5 Oct 2026Pakistan, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia agree to rapid force deployment in the kingdom under Makkah pact
Missile Testing and Capabilities
Pakistan's military conducted a test launch of an extended-range variant of the indigenously developed Fatah-IV ground-launched cruise missile on 6 October. Senior military officers, engineers, and political leaders witnessed the trial, which builds upon the 750-kilometer range variant tested in September 2025. The test expands Pakistan's conventional precision standoff strike envelope across the theater. It follows a recent trial of an indigenous naval anti-ship ballistic missile. Dawn - Home · 6 Oct 2026Pakistan successfully tests launch of extended-range Fatah-IV cruise missile: ISPR
Naval Espionage Investigation
Andhra Pradesh counter-intelligence launched Operation Firewall-2026 across ten Indian states to dismantle a suspected espionage network targeting naval installations. Authorities arrested Indian Navy employee Pradeep Mukherjee and contractual driver Annam Sai Varaprasad for allegedly transmitting classified information from Visakhapatnam naval base to Pakistani intelligence operatives. Investigators placed eighteen individuals under scrutiny, including thirteen naval personnel, over alleged honeytrap operations conducted via encrypted platforms. Times of India · 6 Oct 202613 Navy personnel under scanner in Pakistan-linked espionage probeHindustan Times · 6 Oct 2026Pakistani spy module honey-trapped many, including Navy sailor, in Andhra Pradesh: CopsHindustan Times · 6 Oct 2026Navy staff among 2 arrested in Andhra Pradesh for sharing sensitive defence information with Pakistan: ‘Shared OTP, communicated with them’
Indus Water Friction
Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar warned at a Vienna symposium that depriving Pakistan of water would carry serious security implications. Dar reiterated that river flows support over 250 million citizens and tied water access directly to national food security. India continues to treat the Indus Waters Treaty as held in abeyance following the April 2025 Pahalgam attack, while Pakistan rejects any unilateral suspension of the pact. Dawn - Home · 6 Oct 2026Dar warns of 'serious implications' for regional peace, security if Pakistan deprived of water share under IWT
Assessment
Interstate friction remains elevated through missile tests and espionage investigations, while direct confrontation stays constrained under the May 2025 military cessation.
BOTTOM LINE // Bilateral tension remains elevated following a Pakistani cruise missile test, espionage arrests in India, and renewed warnings over Indus water sharing.
The National Interest notes the International Energy Agency expects India to increase its coal usage. The National Interest · 2 Oct 2026Energy Security in a De-Globalizing World
- Next 12 months
- The National Interest reports the International Energy Agency expects India to use 4.2 percent more coal in 2026.
- 2026-10-07
Pakistan conducts test launch of extended-range Fatah-IV ground-launched cruise missile
Pakistan's military test-fired an indigenously developed extended-range version of the Fatah-IV cruise missile on 6 October. The test follows earlier trials of naval anti-ship ballistic missiles and the 750-kilometer variant of the Fatah-IV.
- 2026-10-03
Indian border troops killed two Pakistani civilians in firing along the Kasur border.
State media reported that India's Border Security Force fired without warning on three Pakistani villagers who stepped past a border marker near Ladhar in Kasur. Two civilians were killed and one was injured, while Pakistani officials alleged a violation of established boundary standard operating procedures.
- 2026-09-29
Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completes maiden live-fire test
The Pakistan Navy submarine PNS Hangor completed its maiden live-fire weapons testing in the North Arabian Sea.
4 more
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 22.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 22.7/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.