WORLD WAR 3 RISK INDEX
Verified situation report across 9 tracked conflicts, from open-source reporting to Saturday 26 September 2026, 04:00 UTC. Iran’s economic pressure on Gulf shipping and the U.S. secondary sanctions regime are consolidating into a direct contest over control of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the strait hinges on sanctions relief, while the UAE and Iraq suspend Iranian flights under U.S. pressure. Saudi Arabia’s resumption of oil transfers through Hormuz tests regional logistics even as Houthi strikes on Red Sea shipping routes disrupt global trade lanes. These moves tighten the link between energy security and military coercion, forcing states to choose between compliance with sanctions and maintaining transit routes critical to global supply chains.