← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan reports killing 33 'India-sponsored terrorists' in Balochistan since Sept 21, including 5 in Sept 24 operation. Dawn - Home · 25 Sep 202633 India-sponsored terrorists killed by security forces in Balochistan since Sept 21: ISPR
- Pakistan dismisses Afghan claims of destroying a Pakistani border post near Spin Boldak as 'fake', citing 13 Afghan Taliban fatalities in Gulistan sector. Dawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Info ministry dismisses Afghan claims of destroying Pakistani post near border in Balochistan as 'fake'Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Pakistani forces kill Afghan Taliban fighters in border escalationTimes of India · 25 Sep 2026Several Taliban fighters killed in clash along Pakistan-Afghanistan border
- India’s AI-powered UAV *Kaal Bhairava Lite* completes 100-hour flight test, including operations in Jammu and Kashmir. Times of India · 24 Sep 2026India’s homegrown AI-powered combat aircraft hits 100-hour flight test milestone
- Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif warns India at UNGA that diverting Indus water will be treated as 'act of war'. Dawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Any attempt to divert Pakistan’s water to be treated as act of war, India ‘must make no mistake about it’: PM at UNGA
- Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye plan urgent military chiefs meeting under Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 24 Sep 2026Pakistan struck sites in Afghanistan in response to recent drone intrusion: MinisterDawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye mull meeting of military chiefs to assist Riyadh under Makkah defence pact: FOAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Pakistan, Turkiye edge closer towards joining Saudi war against Houthis
Balochistan Operations
Pakistan’s military reports killing 33 'India-sponsored terrorists' in Balochistan since Sept 21, including 5 in a Sept 24 operation under *Operation Shaban*. The ISPR explicitly links these groups to India, framing them as *Fitna al-Hindustan*, while Afghan claims of Pakistani border post destruction are dismissed as 'fake'. Cross-border skirmishes with Afghan Taliban persist, with Pakistan reporting 13 Afghan fatalities in Gulistan sector clashes. Dawn - Home · 25 Sep 202633 India-sponsored terrorists killed by security forces in Balochistan since Sept 21: ISPRDawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Info ministry dismisses Afghan claims of destroying Pakistani post near border in Balochistan as 'fake'Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Pakistani forces kill Afghan Taliban fighters in border escalation
Indus Waters Treaty
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif reiterates at UNGA that any attempt to divert Indus water will be treated as 'act of war', citing rejection of India’s unilateral suspension by UN experts. India’s stance remains unyielding, with no indication of compromise. Dawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Any attempt to divert Pakistan’s water to be treated as act of war, India ‘must make no mistake about it’: PM at UNGA
Regional Defence Pact
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye accelerate military coordination under the *Mecca Joint Defence Agreement*, with chiefs of staff meeting in Riyadh to discuss Houthi threats. Pakistan’s PM warns of 'red line' over Mecca’s sanctity, signaling deeper regional alignment. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 24 Sep 2026Pakistan struck sites in Afghanistan in response to recent drone intrusion: MinisterDawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye mull meeting of military chiefs to assist Riyadh under Makkah defence pact: FOAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Pakistan, Turkiye edge closer towards joining Saudi war against Houthis
Domestic Security
Pakistan deploys Rangers in Islamabad and Punjab ahead of PTI’s Sept 27 march, while India’s AI-powered UAV *Kaal Bhairava Lite* completes 100-hour flight tests, including operations in Jammu and Kashmir. Times of India · 24 Sep 2026India’s homegrown AI-powered combat aircraft hits 100-hour flight test milestoneDawn - Home · 24 Sep 2026Rangers deployed in Islamabad, Punjab districts ahead of PTI’s Sept 27 march
Assessment
Tensions remain elevated due to diplomatic posturing and regional defence pacts, but no kinetic escalation or new military operations disrupt the May 2025 ceasefire.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13.7/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.