← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israel conducted targeted airstrikes in Gaza, killing Hamas commanders Hassan Mahmoud Siam and Adham Zubhi Salim Ziyara, both linked to October 7 hostage-taking.
- Two Israeli reservists died in an operational accident when an IDF drone exploded inside a northern Gaza outpost, prompting a 48-hour drone suspension.
- Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam demanded Israel’s full withdrawal from southern Lebanon and ceasefire consolidation during a UN speech, amid continued Israeli shelling.
- IDF and Shin Bet disrupted Hamas financial networks, killing 16 key operatives managing over $1 billion in funding transfers via Turkey and Gaza.
- Israel’s INS Drakon submarine was commissioned, reinforcing naval capabilities amid heightened threats from Iran and its proxies.
Gaza Strikes
Israel targeted Hamas commanders in Gaza City, including those involved in the October 7 massacre and hostage-taking, while an operational accident killed two reservists handling a malfunctioning drone.
Lebanon Ceasefire Demands
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called for Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon and full ceasefire implementation at the UN, as Israeli shelling persisted near the Blue Line.
Hamas Financial Disruption
IDF and Shin Bet operations dismantled Hamas funding networks, killing 16 operatives managing over $1 billion in illicit transfers through Turkey and Gaza.
Operational Hazards
A drone explosion in northern Gaza killed two Israeli reservists, leading to a 48-hour suspension of IDF attack drones pending investigation.
Regional Naval Posture
Israel commissioned the INS Drakon submarine, signaling enhanced naval readiness against Iranian threats and proxy activities.
Assessment
The theater remains in a high-intensity operational state, with sustained strikes, diplomatic tensions, and regional posturing outweighing recent diplomatic progress.
- 2026-09-26
Israeli forces strike Hamas financial network, killing 16 operatives
The IDF and Shin Bet disrupted Hamas financial networks, killing 16 key operatives managing over $1 billion in transfers via Turkey and Gaza.
- 2026-09-24
Israel reduces ground forces in southern Lebanon to six brigades
The Israel Defense Forces reduced active ground formations deployed in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
4 more
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.