← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iran proposes a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on U.S. concessions including lifting sanctions and halting regional combat. World news | The Guardian · 24 Sep 2026Ed Miliband meets Iran’s foreign minister as Tehran gives US ultimatum on strait of HormuzAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran proposes plan to reopen Hormuz within seven days: ministerAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran proposes Hormuz plan, Trump reportedly refuses
- UAE and Iraqi airports suspend Iranian flights under U.S. aviation sanctions, expanding transport restrictions on Tehran. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Iraqi airports halt Iranian flights after new US aviation sanctionsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Sep 2026UAE bars Iranian airlines as US sanctions squeeze Iran’s aviation sectorFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 24 Sep 2026Iran sees air, land travel chaos as US sanctions bite
- Iranian officials reject nuclear concessions, insisting on U.S. compliance with Hormuz reopening terms before negotiations. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran will make no nuclear concessions, Iranian official saysIran International · 25 Sep 2026Iran rules out nuclear concessions even if US accepts Hormuz proposalAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran proposes Hormuz plan, Trump reportedly refuses
- U.S. warns China against aiding Iran militarily or with intelligence, citing reports of Chinese-provided missile systems. Iran International · 25 Sep 2026Trump warned Xi against intelligence and military aid to Iran, envoy saysAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Trump warns Xi over Chinese support for Iran, receives assurances, US envoy saysAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Trump says he talked to Xi about the Iran war
- Saudi Arabia resumes ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Strait of Hormuz, testing regional energy logistics amid disruptions. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Saudi Arabia’s return to Hormuz puts oil transfer network to the test
Hormuz Negotiations
Iran’s seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz hinges on U.S. sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and a ceasefire in Lebanon. The U.S. has not yet accepted the terms, leaving the waterway closed and global energy markets under pressure. Iranian officials insist on full compliance before engaging on nuclear talks. World news | The Guardian · 24 Sep 2026Ed Miliband meets Iran’s foreign minister as Tehran gives US ultimatum on strait of HormuzAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran proposes plan to reopen Hormuz within seven days: ministerAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran proposes Hormuz plan, Trump reportedly refuses
Sanctions Expansion
The UAE, Iraq, and other regional states suspend Iranian airline operations, isolating Tehran’s aviation sector under U.S. secondary sanctions. Iran threatens retaliatory measures against regional hubs if access is denied. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 25 Sep 2026Iraqi airports halt Iranian flights after new US aviation sanctionsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 24 Sep 2026UAE bars Iranian airlines as US sanctions squeeze Iran’s aviation sectorFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 24 Sep 2026Iran sees air, land travel chaos as US sanctions bite
Nuclear Standoff
Iran reaffirms no concessions on its nuclear program, citing U.S. failure to meet preconditions for Hormuz reopening. IAEA access remains limited, with Iran’s uranium stockpile unverified since 2025. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Iran will make no nuclear concessions, Iranian official saysIran International · 25 Sep 2026Iran rules out nuclear concessions even if US accepts Hormuz proposalWorld | Deutsche Welle · 25 Sep 2026Iranian President Pezeshkian brought a diplomatic tone to New York for UNGA. What did his remarks signal?
Regional Disruptions
Saudi Arabia’s resumption of Hormuz oil transfers tests the stability of energy supply chains, while Iran’s IRGC criticizes diplomatic overtures to Saudi Arabia as misplaced amid tensions. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 25 Sep 2026Saudi Arabia’s return to Hormuz puts oil transfer network to the test
Assessment
The theater remains in a high-stakes stalemate, with diplomatic deadlines looming and sanctions deepening regional isolation without kinetic escalation.
- 2026-09-25
UAE suspends Iranian flights under US secondary aviation sanctions
The United Arab Emirates suspended all flights operated by Iranian airlines to enforce United States secondary aviation sanctions.
- 2026-09-23
Iranian foreign minister meets US special envoy at United Nations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours of talks at the United Nations in New York.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
4 more
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 69.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 69.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.