← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russia launched 295 drones (76 jet-powered) and cruise missiles against Kyiv, killing 7 (including an Israeli teen) and injuring 57 across Ukraine. Ukrainska Pravda · 25 Sep 2026Number injured in Russian attacks on Kyiv rises to 57, with 7 killedThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 10, injure 61 across Ukraine over past day as missile strike hits farm in Kharkiv OblastKyiv Post · 25 Sep 2026Zelensky Visits Kyiv Maternity Hospital Struck by Russia as Fresh Attacks Kill 7, Including Israeli Teen
- Ukrainian long-range strikes forced shutdown of Russia’s seventh-largest oil refinery in Perm Krai, disrupting fuel production. Meduza.io · 25 Sep 2026Reuters: Russia’s seventh-largest refinery halts operations after a Ukrainian drone attack
- Russian guided bombs struck civilian targets in Sumy and Kharkiv, injuring 14 and damaging residential and commercial buildings. Ukrinform · 25 Sep 2026Russian drone strike leaves 14-year-old girl injured in SumyUkrinform · 25 Sep 2026Russian forces strike Sumy with guided bombs: Three injured, homes and school damagedUkrinform · 26 Sep 2026Russian attack on Kharkiv leave four people injured
- Ukraine’s ArcelorMittal plant in Kryvyi Rih shut down after repeated Russian strikes, expecting a $1B impairment charge. Kyiv Post · 25 Sep 2026ArcelorMittal Shuts Plant in Kryvyi Rih Due to Russian Strikes, Expects $1B Impairment Charge
- Russian forces targeted energy workers in Odesa Oblast, killing one and injuring another in a drone strike on a DTEK vehicle. Ukrainska Pravda · 25 Sep 2026Russian drone strikes energy workers' vehicle in Odesa Oblast, killing one person and injuring another – photos
Asymmetric Aerial Bombardment
Russia’s 295-drone and cruise-missile barrage on Kyiv and other cities killed 7 (including a 14-year-old Israeli) and injured 57, targeting residential buildings, medical facilities, and commercial infrastructure. Ukrainian air defenses downed 267 drones but faced sustained pressure from jet-powered Shahed models. The strikes included a McDonald’s warehouse and a maternity hospital, underscoring Russia’s focus on civilian morale and economic disruption. Ukrainska Pravda · 25 Sep 2026Number injured in Russian attacks on Kyiv rises to 57, with 7 killedThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 10, injure 61 across Ukraine over past day as missile strike hits farm in Kharkiv OblastKyiv Post · 25 Sep 2026Zelensky Visits Kyiv Maternity Hospital Struck by Russia as Fresh Attacks Kill 7, Including Israeli Teen
Industrial Sabotage
Ukrainian long-range strikes forced the shutdown of Russia’s Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery (7th-largest in Russia) and damaged Almaz-Antey’s microelectronics facility in Ulyanovsk, targeting war-sustaining industries. ArcelorMittal’s Kryvyi Rih plant halted operations after repeated Russian strikes, risking $1B in losses and further straining Ukraine’s steel production. Kyiv Post · 25 Sep 2026ArcelorMittal Shuts Plant in Kryvyi Rih Due to Russian Strikes, Expects $1B Impairment ChargeMeduza.io · 25 Sep 2026Reuters: Russia’s seventh-largest refinery halts operations after a Ukrainian drone attack
Civilian Harm
Russian strikes injured 14 in Sumy (including a 15-year-old) and killed six farmworkers in Kharkiv Oblast, while a drone attack on energy workers in Odesa killed one and injured another. The attacks on civilian infrastructure, including a maternity hospital and food storage, reflect Russia’s strategy to degrade Ukrainian resilience through sustained psychological and material pressure. Ukrainska Pravda · 25 Sep 2026Number injured in Russian attacks on Kyiv rises to 57, with 7 killedUkrinform · 25 Sep 2026Russian drone strike leaves 14-year-old girl injured in SumyUkrinform · 25 Sep 2026Russian forces strike Sumy with guided bombs: Three injured, homes and school damaged
Diplomatic Posturing
Putin linked Ukraine’s drone attacks during Russia’s parliamentary elections to a pause in negotiations, framing resumed talks as contingent on Ukraine’s compliance with Russian demands. Zelensky dismissed the ‘Anchorage formula’ (Crimea/Donbas recognition) as off the negotiating table, signaling Ukraine’s rejection of territorial concessions. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Sep 2026Putin casts doubt on resuming Ukraine talks, citing mass drone attack during Russian electionMeduza.io · 25 Sep 2026Putin says Russia will not attack Europe and blames Ukraine for the breakdown in peace talksKyiv Post · 25 Sep 2026Ukraine’s Troops Helped Push Putin’s ‘Anchorage’ Demands Off Peace Talks Agenda, Zelensky Says
Assessment
The theater remains in a state of extreme kinetic intensity, with Russia escalating strikes on civilian and industrial targets while Ukraine targets Russian war economy infrastructure, sustaining a high-war tempo without operational deceleration.
- 2026-09-22
US President Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
4 more
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 96.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 96.1/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.