← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- The PLA Eastern Theater Command completed its first joint naval drill with Indonesian frigates in waters east of Taiwan.
- Taiwan strongly condemned the China-Indonesia maritime exercise, describing it as an attempt by Beijing to expand jurisdictional control.
- The U.S. State Department called on Beijing to halt its military pressure on Taiwan following the joint exercise.
- Taiwan simulated repelling amphibious invasion forces and testing anti-blockade measures as Han Kuang exercises continued.
- Taiwan authorities intentionally throttled mobile internet access during war games to test cyberattack and communications resilience.
The Taiwan Strait theater remains at elevated tension levels characterized by competitive military exercises, operational posturing, and gray-zone pressure. While active cross-Strait conflict has not occurred, military activities on both sides of the strait highlight persistent risks of operational friction.
The PLA Eastern Theater Command conducted a joint naval exercise with Indonesian frigates in waters east of Taiwan, marking an expansion of Beijing's operational footprint in the Western Pacific. Simultaneously, Taiwan continued its annual Han Kuang military exercises, incorporating anti-blockade drills, amphibious assault defense, and intentional mobile internet throttling to test national communications resilience against simulated cyber and kinetic strikes.
Diplomatic friction intensified as Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the PLA's maneuvers east of the island, framing them as an illegitimate attempt to assert maritime authority. In response, the U.S. State Department urged Beijing to cease military pressure against Taiwan, reiterating Washington's opposition to unilateral changes to the status quo.
Beijing's integration of international naval exercises into waters near Taiwan reflects a broader effort to counter regional defense alignments and establish continuous naval presence around the island. Taiwan's emphasis on civil resilience and counter-blockade scenarios underscores growing domestic focus on enduring gray-zone vulnerabilities.
Assessment: The theater will likely maintain its elevated operational tempo as Taiwan completes its annual defense exercises amid persistent PLA air and maritime patrols.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 50/100 as of 1 January 1970 (buildup), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 50/100 — buildup. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.