← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukraine reportedly offered Russia a localized Black Sea ceasefire amid escalating strikes on maritime energy and export infrastructure.
- A Ukrainian long-range drone strike set fire to a major Russian oil refinery approximately 800 miles inside Russian territory.
- Russian missile and bomb attacks on Odesa and Izium killed at least two civilians and injured several others.
- Satellite imagery confirmed damage to key Black Sea port facilities and grain terminals following recent Ukrainian deep strikes.
- Ukrainian intelligence reported dismantling a Russian espionage network allegedly targeting military air bases housing F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters.
The Russia-Ukraine war remains in a high-intensity state of open interstate conflict defined by heavy frontline attritional combat and persistent long-range strikes across both territories. Neither side has achieved a strategic breakthrough, and the baseline legal status remains unchanged with Ukrainian sovereignty internationally recognized within its 1991 borders despite ongoing Russian military occupation.
Operational developments over the past 36 hours were highlighted by mutual aerial and maritime deep strikes. Ukrainian forces launched long-range drone attacks against Russian energy and logistics targets, hitting a major oil refinery deep within Russia and port infrastructure in the Black Sea. Concurrently, Russian guided-bomb and missile strikes impacted civilian areas in Odesa and Kharkiv oblasts, causing casualties and damage to residential housing.
On the diplomatic and political track, reports emerged that Kyiv offered a localized Black Sea ceasefire proposal intended to safeguard maritime logistics and food transport. However, broader diplomatic efforts remain constrained, with both parties continuing to press operational advantages while fundamental positions regarding territory and security guarantees remain unresolved.
Broader context reflects the expanding economic and humanitarian toll of the long-range strike campaigns. Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining capacity continue to disrupt fuel logistics and drive up domestic transport costs, while persistent air raids against Ukrainian population centers maintain civilian casualties near elevated levels, straining humanitarian resources and energy grid stability.
Both belligerents demonstrate sustained capacity to conduct high-tempo combat operations across air, sea, and land domains without immediate signs of de-escalation. Assessment: The theater will remain locked in a highly attritional cycle of mutual deep strikes and localized frontline battles while comprehensive ceasefire prospects remain remote.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are Russia and Ukraine at war?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (war), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.