← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan proposed a record $35 billion defense budget for 2027, representing an 18 percent increase.
- Taiwan signed a contract with a U.S. defense firm to acquire underwater drones for asymmetric warfare.
- China deployed jet drones near the Taiwan Strait and issued public statements condemning Taiwanese exercises.
- A Taiwanese domestic satellite launcher failed during its inaugural test flight on 19 August.
- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim drew criticism over remarks supporting Beijing's sovereignty claim over Taiwan.
Taiwan proposed a record 2027 defense budget of $35 billion on 20 August 2026 while Chinese military forces maintained daily aircraft and vessel deployments near the Taiwan Strait. Effective administration over Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu remains with the authorities in Taipei without active military combat or an implemented blockade.
Chinese military forces deployed jet drones and staged maneuvers near the Taiwan Strait while Beijing issued statements condemning ongoing Taiwanese military drills. Taiwan signed a contract with a United States firm to acquire underwater drones for its defense posture, alongside a failed test launch of a domestic satellite rocket on 19 August.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faced regional criticism following public remarks acknowledging Beijing's sovereignty claims over Taiwan. Simultaneously, official media in Beijing condemned Taiwanese live-fire training exercises, claiming the drills disrupted commercial maritime routes and coastal resident operations.
The proposed 18 percent increase in Taiwan's 2027 defense budget to $35 billion reflects targeted spending on asymmetric weapons and uncrewed systems. Meanwhile, Japan evaluated arming its submarine fleet with hypersonic missiles to counter Chinese naval expansion in the Western Pacific.
Taiwan's defense spending proposal and uncrewed acquisitions indicate long-term military buildup without triggering immediate military escalation. Assessment: Cross-Strait activity will likely maintain current gray-zone patterns and asymmetric procurement efforts without escalating into open conflict.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 18/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 18/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.