← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- An overnight Russian missile barrage on Kyiv killed at least 15 people and damaged residential buildings amid reported air defence shortages.
- Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on refineries reportedly induced petrol shortages across 70 percent of Russian service stations.
- Kremlin officials publicly stated that no grounds for optimism exist regarding current peace negotiation efforts with Ukraine.
- Ukrainian presidential advisers reported that Russian leadership aims to delay diplomacy, calculating that Ukraine cannot withstand winter energy strain.
- Former Ukrainian defence officials publicly called for holding wartime elections, increasing domestic political discussion in Kyiv.
Active interstate combat continues between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces along the Donbas contact line and against urban infrastructure. Russian forces launched heavy missile strikes against Kyiv on 20 August 2026, while Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian fuel infrastructure.
Russian ballistic and cruise missiles struck Kyiv overnight on 20 August 2026, killing at least 15 civilians and damaging residential blocks. Ukrainian air defence units reported critical shortages of interceptor missiles during the attack. Meanwhile, Ukrainian long-range drone strikes against Russian oil facilities caused petrol shortages across 70 percent of Russian gas stations.
Diplomatic negotiation efforts remain halted following statements from both capitals on 20 August 2026. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated Moscow would not accept Western negotiation frameworks, while Kremlin spokespersons reported no progress in talks. Ukrainian officials stated Russian negotiators are delaying dialogue until winter.
Supply shortages of Western air defence interceptors leave Ukrainian urban centers vulnerable to Russian missile salvoes. Simultaneously, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining infrastructure continue to disrupt domestic fuel distribution networks. Internationally, Russian officials held discussions with Vatican representatives while expanding economic ties with China.
Neither belligerent shows intention to alter core military objectives or enter binding ceasefire arrangements. Assessment: Sustained long-range strikes against energy assets and urban centers will maintain intense combat operations without diplomatic resolution in the immediate term.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.