← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Pakistan's military rejected an Indian documentary detailing the May 2025 Operation Sindoor, calling its operational depiction inaccurate.
- Pakistan's Foreign Ministry denied accusations from Indian officials linking Islamabad to recently arrested suspected militant operatives.
- Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan that any future border misadventures would face an unprecedented military response.
- The Indian Air Force conducted Exercise Vayu Shakti in Rajasthan, demonstrating air combat capabilities near the international border.
- India's Ministry of External Affairs reaffirmed its position holding the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance.
The military cessation agreed on 10 May 2025 along the Line of Control remains in effect without verified large-scale combat engagements. Both states remain locked in a political stalemate over Kashmir, counter-terrorism accusations, and the held-in-abeyance Indus Waters Treaty.
The Indian Air Force executed Exercise Vayu Shakti in Rajasthan, deploying combat aircraft in operational drills near the border sector. Indian security forces reported arresting suspected cross-border operatives in West Bengal and other regions, alleging connections to Pakistani intelligence handlers. Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations rejected Indian media accounts and documentaries regarding Operation Sindoor, characterizing Indian military claims as inaccurate.
Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued formal rejections of allegations made by Indian Home Minister Amit Shah regarding Pakistan-backed militant networks. Islamabad simultaneously accused New Delhi of conducting extrajudicial targeted killings abroad. India's Ministry of External Affairs reaffirmed that the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remains held in abeyance while highlighting governance conditions in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
The bilateral relationship remains constrained by structural disputes following India's 2019 constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir and the May 2025 military confrontation. Diplomatic representation remains downgraded, and cross-border trade and transit through crossings such as Attari-Wagah remain suspended or severely restricted. Routine confidence-building measures, including bi-annual prisoner list exchanges and nuclear facility lists, provide the only active official bilateral channels.
Neither government has initiated formal bilateral talks to resolve territorial claims or reinstate full diplomatic relations. Border security forces maintain heightened surveillance along the international border and Line of Control during national holiday periods. Assessment: The military cessation will likely hold near term despite persistent rhetorical disputes, counter-terrorism operations, and contested transboundary water governance.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
- 2026-08-11
Indian security agencies issue alerts over potential cross-border threats ahead of Independence Day.
- 2026-08-10
Indian Border Security Force launches pre-Independence Day security operations along the Pakistan border.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 8/100 as of 1 January 1970 (stable), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 8/100 — stable. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.