← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukraine launched a large-scale drone attack towards Moscow, reportedly striking rear infrastructure including a commercial warehouse.
- Moscow issued official warnings to the United Kingdom after alleging British-supplied drones were used in Ukrainian strikes inside Russia.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rejected truce proposals while Russian forces maintained strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
- France, Germany, and Great Britain initiated preliminary preparations for a diplomatic format to secure European representation at future peace negotiations.
- Reports indicated North Korea is preparing additional troop deployments to support Russian offensive operations alongside ongoing missile campaigns.
Russia and Ukraine remain engaged in full-scale interstate armed conflict across eastern contact lines and through sustained long-range aerial bombardment. Russian forces maintain military occupation over Ukrainian territories in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson while Ukraine conducts asymmetric strikes into Russian territory.
Ukrainian forces deployed long-range drones targeting Moscow and rear supply facilities, causing damage to commercial infrastructure. Russian missile salvos targeted Ukrainian electrical grids and power plants in an ongoing campaign against energy infrastructure ahead of winter. Frontline combat persisted in eastern regions while reports cited preparations for further North Korean troop deployments in support of Russian forces.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly rejected ceasefire proposals, stating Russia would continue offensive actions. Officials in France, Germany, and Great Britain began coordinating a European negotiation framework to secure direct participation in future peace talks. Concurrently, Russian diplomats warned British officials of retaliatory measures over the alleged employment of British-made drones in deep-strike operations.
Ukraine's operational strategy prioritizes asymmetric long-range strikes on Russian logistical hubs, strategic aviation bases, and economic assets. Russian defensive and offensive operations remain augmented by foreign military support, including North Korean artillery munitions and manpower support. European Union member states maintain active trade restrictions and financial sanctions targeting Russian defense manufacturers.
Continued long-range bombardments against energy networks and rear strategic sites indicate a prolonged attritional conflict without immediate prospects for a comprehensive ceasefire. Neither belligerent has altered core demands regarding territorial sovereignty or security guarantees. Assessment: High-intensity attritional combat and long-range infrastructure strikes will persist across the theater without near-term operational resolution.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 87/100 as of 1 January 1970 (mass war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 87/100 — mass war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.