← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- An Indian warship collided with a Pakistani Navy vessel during a surveillance mission in the Northern Arabian Sea. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 16 Sep 2026India, Pakistan naval vessels collide; MEA summons Pakistan envoy in New DelhiAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026India-Pakistan navy ship collision sparks alarm over unintended escalation
- Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned India's top diplomat in Islamabad to protest the Arabian Sea maritime collision. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026India-Pakistan navy ship collision sparks alarm over unintended escalation
- An Indian National Investigation Agency court issued an arrest warrant against Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba commander Saifullah. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026NIA court issues arrest warrant against Pakistan-based LeT ‘commander’ Saifullah for his role in attacks in J&K
- American drone company Powerus signed a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistan Army for unmanned aerial systems. Dawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026US drone maker Powerus says it signed MoU with Pakistan Army, gets initial order
- Pakistan operationalized a joint border commission with China during an inaugural foreign ministry meeting in Islamabad. Dawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026Islamabad, Beijing activate joint border commission
Arabian Sea Naval Collision
An Indian Navy warship collided with a Pakistani Navy vessel in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea on September 15. The Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi summoned Pakistan's Charge d'Affaires to lodge a protest over alleged unprofessional conduct. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry subsequently summoned India's top diplomat in Islamabad, claiming the Indian vessel had entered Pakistan's Exclusive Economic Zone. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 16 Sep 2026India, Pakistan naval vessels collide; MEA summons Pakistan envoy in New DelhiAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026India-Pakistan navy ship collision sparks alarm over unintended escalation
Pakistani Airspace Ban
The Pakistan Airports Authority extended the prohibition on Indian-registered, operated, owned, or leased aircraft using Pakistani airspace through October 24. The restriction applies to both the Karachi and Lahore Flight Information Regions. The closure maintains the airspace restrictions originally imposed following the April 2025 Pahalgam attack. Dawn - Home · 16 Sep 2026Ban on Indian aircraft using Pakistani airspace extended until Oct 24
Counterterrorism Arrest Warrants
A Special Court of India's National Investigation Agency issued an arrest warrant for Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba commander Saifullah regarding his involvement in terrorist attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. India's representative at the United Nations Security Council separately criticized Pakistan over historical terrorist safe havens during a debate on global security. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026NIA court issues arrest warrant against Pakistan-based LeT ‘commander’ Saifullah for his role in attacks in J&KIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 17 Sep 2026‘Architects of 9/11 were not hiding in caves,’ India tells UNSC in scathing attack at Pakistan
Defense Procurement and Border Operations
United States drone manufacturer Powerus signed a memorandum of understanding with the Pakistan Army for unmanned aerial systems. Pakistan and China operationalized their joint boundary commission during an inaugural meeting at the Foreign Office in Islamabad to coordinate cross-border connectivity. Dawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026US drone maker Powerus says it signed MoU with Pakistan Army, gets initial orderDawn - Home · 17 Sep 2026Islamabad, Beijing activate joint border commission
Assessment
Bilateral relations remain constrained by mutual diplomatic protests and persistent airspace bans following the May 2025 military cessation, though no kinetic firing across the Line of Control has been reported.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.