← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- A United Nations fact-finding mission concluded United States military strikes on an Iranian primary school in Minab constituted war crimes. World news | The Guardian · 17 Sep 2026Iran school bombing: grounds to believe US was behind atrocity, UN findsNPR Topics: World · 17 Sep 2026U.N.-backed experts cite possible U.S. war crimes in Iran, including a school attackAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 17 Sep 2026UN mission finds grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran, and Tehran crimes against humanity
- Leaked military photographs confirmed direct Iranian missile strikes damaged an airborne early warning aircraft at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Tehran Times · 16 Sep 2026Leaked photos and munition depletion expose devastating toll of Iranian strikes on US basesBBC News · 16 Sep 2026Photos show widespread damage at US sites from Iranian attacks
- The United States House of Representatives passed sweeping sanctions targeting Iranian and Russian economic sectors. Iran International · 17 Sep 2026US House passes Iran sanctions as Trump signals war may be nearing end
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to return to the Islamabad memorandum framework. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 16 Sep 2026China's top diplomat urges Iran, US to show restraint, revive talks
- Commercial satellite imagery revealed Iranian authorities rapidly rebuilding a fortified military research facility at the Parchin complex. Iran International · 17 Sep 2026Iran rapidly rebuilding site tied to past nuclear weapons research
U.N. Investigation into Strike Casualties
A report by an independent United Nations fact-finding mission concluded that United States military forces committed war crimes during February missile strikes on a primary school in Minab and a sports facility in southern Iran. The panel also cited Iranian state authorities for crimes against humanity related to the suppression of internal anti-government demonstrations. The findings intensify legal scrutiny on Washington's air campaign while maintaining international focus on Tehran's domestic human rights record. World news | The Guardian · 17 Sep 2026Iran school bombing: grounds to believe US was behind atrocity, UN findsNPR Topics: World · 17 Sep 2026U.N.-backed experts cite possible U.S. war crimes in Iran, including a school attackAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 17 Sep 2026UN mission finds grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran, and Tehran crimes against humanity
U.S. Base Damage in Gulf States
Published military photographs and Defense Department Inspector General findings confirmed structural destruction across American installations at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and Camp Buehring in Kuwait following Iranian missile bombardments. The visual evidence documented gutted command infrastructure and a destroyed Boeing E-3 Sentry early warning aircraft, refuting earlier official accounts regarding the scope of baseline damage. The documented losses highlight persistent vulnerabilities in regional air defence coverage across Gulf host nations. Tehran Times · 16 Sep 2026Leaked photos and munition depletion expose devastating toll of Iranian strikes on US basesBBC News · 16 Sep 2026Photos show widespread damage at US sites from Iranian attacks
Diplomatic Track and Economic Pressure
President Donald Trump claimed direct communications occurred with Iranian officials regarding a potential end to hostilities, while Iranian representatives maintained that formal negotiations require Washington to honor the June memorandum and lift its naval blockade. Meanwhile, the United States House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 to deepen trade restrictions. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi separately met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Beijing to advocate for a return to the Islamabad memorandum. Iran International · 17 Sep 2026US House passes Iran sanctions as Trump signals war may be nearing endAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 17 Sep 2026Trump claims direct talks with Iran: Is diplomacy picking up again?AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 16 Sep 2026China's top diplomat urges Iran, US to show restraint, revive talks
Parchin Infrastructure and Domestic Security
Satellite imagery revealed rapid reconstruction activity at Iran's Parchin military complex, where work continues on a high-explosive research site previously targeted in prior strike rounds. Separately, Iranian security forces deployed across western cities during commercial shop strikes marking the anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death, while IRGC leadership attributed the assassination of Sunni cleric Molavi Yousef Gorgij in Zahedan to foreign intelligence agencies. Iran International · 17 Sep 2026Iran rapidly rebuilding site tied to past nuclear weapons researchIran International · 16 Sep 2026Security forces deploy as shops in western Iran strike on Mahsa Amini anniversaryTehran Times · 16 Sep 2026IRGC chief pledges retribution after assassination of Sunni cleric
Assessment
Unresolved diplomatic demands regarding the Strait of Hormuz naval blockade and ongoing nuclear facility reconstruction indicate that high operational risks and potential for renewed strike exchanges persist across the theater.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 74.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 74.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.