← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- A suicide car bomber attacked a mosque inside a police headquarters compound in Kohat, Pakistan, killing at least 31 people. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 19 Sep 202631 dead in attack at police headquarters in PakistanTimes of India · 19 Sep 2026Suicide blast at Pakistan police compound: Death toll mounts to 31
- The Baloch Liberation Army claimed its fighters killed 43 Pakistani military personnel during operations across Balochistan between September 7 and 13. Times of India · 18 Sep 2026BLA claims 43 Pakistani personnel, ‘death squad’ members killed in Balochistan
- Indian and United States army units executed joint exercises during Exercise Yudh Abhyas in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. Times of India · 19 Sep 2026Indian & US armies deploy AI and cyber capabilities in Yudh Abhyas wargames
- United States President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O Graham Act, enabling potential tariffs on Indian imports over Russian oil purchases. Times of India · 19 Sep 2026Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law, allowing up to 100% tariffs on IndiaDawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026New US sanctions bill on Russia puts India's Modi in a bind
- Pakistan military spokesperson Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry reaffirmed unconditional defense commitments to Saudi Arabia amid Houthi strikes. Dawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026Amid Houthi attacks, DG ISPR says Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to defend Saudi ArabiaDawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026'Our commitment is unconditional': Amid Houthi attacks, DG ISPR says Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to defend Saudi Arabia
Kohat Mosque Bombing
A suicide car bombing hit a mosque inside a police headquarters complex in Kohat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing at least 31 people and injuring over 70. Gunmen engaged in a firefight with security forces following the initial explosion, with Pakistani authorities suspecting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or ISIL affiliates. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026Bomb attack at Pakistan mosque kills at least 16 people, injures 56World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 19 Sep 202631 dead in attack at police headquarters in PakistanTimes of India · 19 Sep 2026Suicide blast at Pakistan police compound: Death toll mounts to 31
Balochistan Insurgency Claims
The Baloch Liberation Army reported executing 13 distinct attacks against Pakistani military personnel and allied local forces between September 7 and 13. The group claimed responsibility for 43 military casualties across several districts including Kharan and Lasbela. Times of India · 18 Sep 2026BLA claims 43 Pakistani personnel, ‘death squad’ members killed in Balochistan
Indo-US Military Exercises
Indian and United States land forces deployed 1,200 personnel to Uttarakhand and Rajasthan for the 22nd edition of Exercise Yudh Abhyas. The wargames integrated electronic warfare, counter-drone operational frameworks, and artificial intelligence capabilities across parallel command post and field drills. Times of India · 19 Sep 2026Indian & US armies deploy AI and cyber capabilities in Yudh Abhyas wargames
US Tariffs Legislation
United States President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law, establishing potential tariffs of up to 100 percent on major buyers of Russian petroleum. The Indian government rejected foreign restrictions on its oil procurement, affirming intentions to maintain energy imports for domestic consumption. Times of India · 19 Sep 2026Trump signs Russia sanctions bill: Will India actually face 100% tariffTimes of India · 19 Sep 2026Trump signs Russia sanctions bill into law, allowing up to 100% tariffs on IndiaDawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026New US sanctions bill on Russia puts India's Modi in a bind
Saudi Defense Commitments
Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry stated Pakistani military deployments under the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia remain active. Pakistani Foreign Office spokespersons confirmed opposition to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea while advocating diplomatic resolution over military escalation. Dawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026Amid Houthi attacks, DG ISPR says Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to defend Saudi ArabiaDawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026'Our commitment is unconditional': Amid Houthi attacks, DG ISPR says Pakistan will 'go to any extent' to defend Saudi ArabiaDawn - Home · 18 Sep 2026Pakistan ‘prefers dialogue over coercion’ to address Houthi threat
Assessment
Direct kinetic engagements between Indian and Pakistani armed forces along the Line of Control remain halted under the May 2025 ceasefire agreement.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 15.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 15.7/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.