← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- China and Russia vetoed a United States-drafted UN Security Council draft resolution extending the Iran sanctions monitoring panel. Tehran Times · 18 Sep 2026End of the ‘unipolar order’: Sino-Russian vetoes deal a blow to US Iran sanctions push
- A United Nations fact-finding mission reported that February United States strikes in Iran constituted potential war crimes. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026United Nations says US may have committed war crimes in Iran: What it meansFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 18 Sep 2026UN mission says grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran
- South Korean President Lee Jae Myung rejected United States requests to deploy military forces to the Strait of Hormuz. World news | The Guardian · 18 Sep 2026South Korea will not send military to support US war on Iran, defying Trump pressureTehran Times · 18 Sep 2026South Korea rebuffs Trump: No troops for US war on Iran
- Iranian authorities executed a citizen accused of transmitting Isfahan missile site intelligence to Israel's Mossad. Iran International · 19 Sep 2026Iran executes man it accused of spying for Israel on missile sites
- Iranian security forces staged a large-scale pro-government mobilization rally in Tehran. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 19 Sep 2026Iran stages show of force during mobilisation campaign in TehranAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 18 Sep 2026As Iran regime marks 200 days of war, is it also preparing for dissent?
UN Sanctions Mechanism
China and Russia exercised Security Council vetoes to block a United States draft resolution renewing the expert panel monitoring Iranian sanctions. This procedural breakdown ends formal UN oversight mechanisms active since 2015, highlighting growing multilateral division over enforcement. Tehran Times · 18 Sep 2026End of the ‘unipolar order’: Sino-Russian vetoes deal a blow to US Iran sanctions push
Strait of Hormuz Deployment
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung rejected United States requests to send troops to the Strait of Hormuz, limiting coalition expansion in the waterway. Seoul cited risks of direct entrapment in interstate conflict while assessing non-military measures to protect commercial shipping. World news | The Guardian · 18 Sep 2026South Korea will not send military to support US war on Iran, defying Trump pressureTehran Times · 18 Sep 2026South Korea rebuffs Trump: No troops for US war on Iran
Civilian Impact Investigations
A United Nations fact-finding mission concluded that United States strikes in February on a primary school in Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd constituted potential war crimes. The findings elevate legal scrutiny on military operations while Washington attributes the Minab damage to an Iranian cruise missile. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026United Nations says US may have committed war crimes in Iran: What it meansFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 18 Sep 2026UN mission says grounds to believe US committed war crimes in Iran
Economic Disruptions and Domestic Strain
Persistent shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz drive energy price increases, prompting European emergency fiscal discussions and severe fuel inflation across South Asia. In the United States, rising consumer costs and expanding public opposition to the war intensify political debate ahead of midterm elections. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026‘My children did not attack Iran’: 2bn South Asians suffer from distant warIran International · 18 Sep 2026Democrats seize on Iran war costs to hit Trump ahead of midtermsAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 18 Sep 2026US voter opposition to war on Iran grows to new highs: Poll
Assessment
Unresolved diplomatic deadlock at the United Nations and widespread economic spillovers sustain critical operational risks despite a pause in major direct strike rounds.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
4 more
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 75.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 75.7/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.