← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar denounced Pakistan at the UN General Assembly, categorizing Islamabad as a serial practitioner of cross-border terrorism. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026At UNGA, Jaishankar hits back at Pakistan PM on terrorism, Indus Waters TreatyTimes of India · 27 Sep 2026Jaishankar at UNGA: Pakistan serial practitioner of terror, must face outcomeNDTV News Search Records Found 1000 · 27 Sep 2026"Serial Practitioner Of Terrorism": S Jaishankar Rips Into Pakistan At UN
- Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared at the UN General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus waters would constitute an act of war. Dawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Any attempt to divert Pakistan’s water to be treated as act of war, India ‘must make no mistake about it’: PM at UNGAWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026Shehbaz Sharif raises Kashmir issue at UNGA, credits Trump for ‘timely intervention’ in 2025 India-Pakistan conflict
- Military chiefs of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye convened in Riyadh to operationalize trilateral defense coordination under the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement. Dawn - Home · 26 Sep 2026What comes after Riyadh meeting between the Pakistani, Saudi and Turkish military chiefs?Dawn - World · 25 Sep 2026Pakistani, Saudi, Turkish military chiefs meet to discuss ways to assist Riyadh under Makkah defence pactWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkiye defence officials resolve to assist Riyadh in wake of Houthi attacks
- Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan detonated an explosives-laden vehicle at a police checkpoint in Dera Ismail Khan, killing at least 13 people. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026At least 12 killed in bomb blast in northwest PakistanWorld | Deutsche Welle · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan: Suicide attack at police stop kills at least 11Times of India · 26 Sep 2026At least 12 dead in suicide bomb blast near police post in northwestern Pakistan
- Pakistan Navy vessels PNS Hunain and PNS Yarmook intercepted a suspicious boat in the Arabian Sea, seizing illicit narcotics valued at $750 million. Dawn - Home · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan Navy seizes $750m worth of narcotics in Arabian Sea during joint operation
UNGA Diplomatic Sparring
At the 81st UN General Assembly, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar rejected Pakistani representations, asserting that cross-border terrorism would face defensive responses. Pakistani diplomat Saima Saleem exercised a Right of Reply to accuse India of state propaganda and proxy operations, following Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's speech addressing Kashmir and attributing the May 2025 ceasefire to foreign mediation. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026At UNGA, Jaishankar hits back at Pakistan PM on terrorism, Indus Waters TreatyTimes of India · 27 Sep 2026Jaishankar at UNGA: Pakistan serial practitioner of terror, must face outcomeDawn - Home · 26 Sep 2026'Largest hypocrisy in the world': Pakistan tells UNGA India’s 'terrorist exports' have gone global
Indus Waters Dispute
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told the UN General Assembly that any Indian attempt to alter or impede downstream river flows would be treated as an act of war. India maintains its position that the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty is held in abeyance, while Islamabad continues to cite rulings from the Permanent Court of Arbitration rejecting unilateral suspension. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026At UNGA, Jaishankar hits back at Pakistan PM on terrorism, Indus Waters TreatyDawn - Home · 25 Sep 2026Any attempt to divert Pakistan’s water to be treated as act of war, India ‘must make no mistake about it’: PM at UNGA
Makkah Defence Alliance
Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, and Turkish Chief of General Staff General Selcuk Bayraktaroglu met in Riyadh to advance operational planning. The discussions focused on collective defense measures to assist Saudi Arabia against regional aerial and maritime threats. Dawn - Home · 26 Sep 2026What comes after Riyadh meeting between the Pakistani, Saudi and Turkish military chiefs?Dawn - World · 25 Sep 2026Pakistani, Saudi, Turkish military chiefs meet to discuss ways to assist Riyadh under Makkah defence pactWorld News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Turkiye defence officials resolve to assist Riyadh in wake of Houthi attacks
Internal Security Incidents
In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's Dera Ismail Khan district, a suicide bomber drove an explosives-laden vehicle into the Aman Mela police checkpost, killing at least 13 security personnel and civilians and injuring 35 others. Separately, Pakistan Navy patrol ships PNS Hunain and PNS Yarmook seized $750 million worth of narcotics during counter-smuggling operations in the Arabian Sea. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 26 Sep 2026At least 12 killed in bomb blast in northwest PakistanWorld | Deutsche Welle · 26 Sep 2026Pakistan: Suicide attack at police stop kills at least 11Times of India · 26 Sep 2026At least 12 dead in suicide bomb blast near police post in northwestern Pakistan
Assessment
Friction remains centered on rhetorical and legal disputes in international forums, with no reported violations of the May 2025 military cessation along the Line of Control or the international border.
- 2026-09-26
Pakistan warns India that diverting Indus waters constitutes an act of war
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif warned the United Nations General Assembly that any Indian effort to divert Indus River waters would be treated as an act of war.
- 2026-09-16
Pakistani and Indian warships collide during maneuvers in Arabian Sea
A Pakistani naval vessel collided with an Indian Navy warship during high-speed maneuvers in international waters in the Northern Arabian Sea. India summoned Pakistan's chargé d'affaires to protest the collision as a bilateral breach.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13.7/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.