← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian drone strikes targeted Kyiv's Solomianskyi district, damaging non-residential structures. Ukrainska Pravda · 26 Sep 2026Drone strikes or falling debris reported in three Kyiv districtsUkrinform · 27 Sep 2026Drone strike sparks fire at warehouse in KyivUkrinform · 26 Sep 2026Russian drone strikes office building in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi district
- Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russia's Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast. Ukrainska Pravda · 26 Sep 2026Zelenskyy confirms strike on plant in Russia's Rostov Oblast producing missile components – videoThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 26 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russian defense plant producing missile components, General Staff says
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck Russia's Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, causing operational shutdown. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 26 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russia's Ilsky oil refinery, causing fire, General Staff confirms
- Russian guided aerial bombs struck central Sumy, causing 25 civilian casualties. Ukrainska Pravda · 26 Sep 2026Number injured in Russian strikes on Sumy rises to 23, two people killedUkrainska Pravda · 26 Sep 2026Two killed, six injured: Russian forces hit central Sumy with three guided aerial bombs
- Russian President Vladimir Putin questioned resuming negotiations following Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Sep 2026Putin casts doubt on resuming Ukraine talks, citing mass drone attack during Russian electionMeduza.io · 25 Sep 2026Putin says Russia will not attack Europe and blames Ukraine for the breakdown in peace talks
Asymmetric Long-Range Bombardment
Russian forces conducted multi-day drone and missile waves against Ukrainian urban centers, hitting residential areas, data centers, and office buildings in Kyiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian long-range strike operations targeted Russian war-sustaining infrastructure, damaging the Azov Optical-Mechanical Plant in Rostov Oblast, which supplies missile components, and forcing an operational shutdown at the Ilsky oil refinery funding Russia's war effort in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainska Pravda · 26 Sep 2026Drone strikes or falling debris reported in three Kyiv districtsUkrainska Pravda · 26 Sep 2026Zelenskyy confirms strike on plant in Russia's Rostov Oblast producing missile components – videoThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 26 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes Russia's Ilsky oil refinery, causing fire, General Staff confirms
European Hybrid Sabotage
German investigators attributed a September 3 arson attack near the Munich offices of defense contractors Rohde & Schwarz and Helsing, which produces artificial intelligence drones for Ukraine, to Russia's GRU military intelligence service. German police detained two Bulgarian nationals suspected of conducting low-level sabotage for Russian intelligence, reflecting expanding covert activity against Western defense suppliers. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 26 Sep 2026Germany links arson attack near Ukraine-supplying drone maker Helsing to Russia's GRU
Diplomatic Stagnation
Russian President Vladimir Putin linked the resumption of peace negotiations to Ukraine's long-range strikes, citing alleged drone attacks on Moscow and polling sites during Russia's September parliamentary election to stall dialogue. Ukrainian leadership maintained that territorial integrity remains non-negotiable while requesting additional Western air defense systems and sanctions enforcement against Russia. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 25 Sep 2026Putin casts doubt on resuming Ukraine talks, citing mass drone attack during Russian electionMeduza.io · 25 Sep 2026Putin says Russia will not attack Europe and blames Ukraine for the breakdown in peace talks
Assessment
The theater remains in open interstate war with sustained high-tempo strikes against urban civilian centers and strategic industrial facilities, indicating no operational deceleration.
ISW assesses Ukrainian forces will produce roughly 400 interceptor drones of one model by late October 2026 to counter Russian strikes. Mick Ryan warns expanded Russian production will leave Ukrainian infrastructure exposed to heavier raids, while OSW reports Moscow will maintain elevated defense spending of 50 trillion roubles through 2027 to 2029. Institute for the Study of War · 3 Oct 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment October 2 2026Institute for the Study of War · 3 Oct 2026Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment Updates September 2026 PresentMick Ryan (Futura Doctrina) · 26 Sep 2026Robotic Air Assaults as Vivaldi Rolls Forward, Russia Attacks Ukrainian Digital Infrastructure, Trump and Xi Meet. My Weekly Update.OSW Centre for Eastern Studies · 29 Sep 2026The Russians are attacking data centres in Kyiv. Day 1679 of the war
- Next month
- ISW projects Ukraine will produce approximately 400 units of a new interceptor drone model by the end of October 2026.
- Next 3 months
- ISW expects Ukrainian operational security surrounding counterattacks will continue obscuring net front-line territorial assessments over coming months.
WATCH Late October 2026 — Ukrainian domestic rollout of 400 new interceptor drones to counter Russian jet-powered drone strikes. · 2027–2029 — Russian planned defense expenditure reaching 50 trillion roubles to sustain prolonged war efforts.
- 2026-09-22
US President Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
4 more
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 96.6/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 96.6/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.