← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- An Israeli drone strike killed one person at a residential home in Deir al-Balah. Haaretz latest headlines · 22 Aug 2026Man killed in Israeli drone strike on home in central Gaza, medical sources say
- Israeli forces killed Hamas commander Ismail Abu Foul during an airstrike in Al-Maghazi. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Aug 2026IDF kills Hamas commander, strikes weapons production site near Gaza aid centerאבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Aug 2026The IDF Spokesperson links two separate strikes today in the Strip:
- Mossad Chief Roman Gofman met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Jordan. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Aug 2026Mossad chief, Syria FM hold positive de-escalation talks after Israeli airbase strike, source saysאבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Aug 2026Journalist Barak Ravid claims that Mossad chief Roman Gofman met today with the Syrian foreign minister in Jordan—as part of efforts to reduce tensions following the Israeli strike at Abu al-Thohur airport in Idlib.
- Israeli security forces arrested a suspect following a stabbing attack in al-Auja. אבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Aug 2026IDF Spokesperson: Following a pursuit, IDF forces arrested the suspect believed to be the terrorist who carried out this morning’s stabbing attack in the Auja areaHaaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Israeli man moderately wounded in West Bank stabbing attack, medics say
- Israeli forces targeted an individual in a drone strike near Beit Jinn in Syria. BBC News · 22 Aug 2026Syria says Israeli strike near Damascus violation of international lawHaaretz latest headlines · 22 Aug 2026IDF says it targeted terrorist in recent Syria strike
Mossad-Syrian Talks
Mossad Chief Roman Gofman met Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Jordan to discuss de-escalation measures following Israeli strikes on Syrian infrastructure. Foreign Minister Shaibani indicated Damascus anticipates resuming broader security talks to secure troop withdrawals. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Aug 2026Mossad chief, Syria FM hold positive de-escalation talks after Israeli airbase strike, source saysאבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Aug 2026Journalist Barak Ravid claims that Mossad chief Roman Gofman met today with the Syrian foreign minister in Jordan—as part of efforts to reduce tensions following the Israeli strike at Abu al-Thohur airport in Idlib.Haaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Syria's foreign minister sees Israel security talks resuming despite no trust
Gaza Military Strikes
Israeli forces executed targeted air operations across central Gaza, killing Hamas commander Ismail Abu Foul in Al-Maghazi and striking a facility near Az-Zawayda. Operational activity continues amid reports of civilian casualties in Khan Yunis. Haaretz latest headlines · 22 Aug 2026Man killed in Israeli drone strike on home in central Gaza, medical sources sayJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Aug 2026IDF kills Hamas commander, strikes weapons production site near Gaza aid centerאבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Aug 2026The IDF Spokesperson links two separate strikes today in the Strip:
Turkish Airbase Dispute
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israel alerted Syrian authorities prior to bombing Abu al-Duhur airbase to prevent Turkish military radar deployments. U.S. officials criticized the operation as an unnecessary risk to regional stability. Haaretz latest headlines · 22 Aug 2026Israel disputes U.S. envoy, says it warned Syria before striking airbase over Turkish military buildupHaaretz latest headlines · 22 Aug 2026U.S. envoy: Israel risked confrontation with Turkey by 'baiting' AnkaraJPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 22 Aug 2026Israel targeted Syria airbase over planned Turkish troop, radar presence, source confirms to 'Post'
West Bank Operations
Security forces detained a suspect following a stabbing incident in al-Auja near Jericho. Israeli troops conducted operational raids in the area, resulting in the death of a Palestinian youth in a separate West Bank city engagement. אבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Aug 2026IDF Spokesperson: Following a pursuit, IDF forces arrested the suspect believed to be the terrorist who carried out this morning’s stabbing attack in the Auja areaHaaretz latest headlines · 23 Aug 2026Israeli man moderately wounded in West Bank stabbing attack, medics sayHaaretz latest headlines · 22 Aug 2026IDF shoots, kills 14-year-old Palestinian boy in West Bank city raid, medics say
Assessment
High operational momentum across Gaza, the West Bank, and Syria sustains critical escalation risks, while diplomatic channels remain open for targeted regional security understandings.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
4 more
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli forces conduct airstrikes in southern Lebanon as Lebanese army expands operations.
The IDF carried out strikes against targets in southern Lebanon while the Lebanese Armed Forces continued operating in designated pilot zones. The strikes occurred as international discussions considered the UK and Italy to monitor Hezbollah disarmament.
- 2026-08-12
Israel conducts targeted Gaza airstrike and reported southern Lebanon strikes testing ceasefires.
Israeli forces carried out an airstrike in Gaza targeting a Hamas commander, marking the first strike in over a week. Concurrently, localized military activity and reported strikes in southern Lebanon continue to test international ceasefire arrangements.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 73/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 73/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.