← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te delivered a speech marking the 1958 Second Taiwan Strait Crisis anniversary to emphasize deterrence against Chinese military pressure. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 23 Aug 2026Taiwan president touts peace through strength on China battle anniversary
- Taiwan Coast Guard Administration vessels shadowed Chinese research ship Tong Ji 28 nautical miles off Liuqiu Island before driving it southeast. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Aug 2026Mainland Chinese research ship spotted near Taiwan’s largest naval base
- Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim affirmed Beijing's sovereignty over Taiwan, prompting an official diplomatic rebuke from Taiwan's government. The Diplomat · 20 Aug 2026China Praises Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim For Supportive Comments on Taiwan
- Republic of China Military Police deployed Kestrel anti-tank launchers around Taipei Metro infrastructure during Han Kuang 42 drills. USNI News · 21 Aug 2026How Taiwan’s Elite Military Police Plan to Defend Taipei
- Republic of China Army personnel positioned M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks near Taoyuan International Airport during defensive exercises. USNI News · 18 Aug 2026Taiwan’s Tanks
Strait Crisis Commemoration
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te addressed the 68th anniversary of the 1958 Second Taiwan Strait Crisis on August 23, framing national defense expansion as necessary to deter aggression by the People's Republic of China. President Lai affirmed that peace relies on military strength, emphasizing Taiwan's commitment to maintaining cross-Strait stability while upgrading defense capabilities. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 23 Aug 2026Taiwan president touts peace through strength on China battle anniversary
Hydrographic Gray-Zone Operations
Taiwan Coast Guard Administration vessels intercepted the Chinese university research ship Tong Ji 28 nautical miles southwest of Liuqiu Island near Kaohsiung naval installation. Taiwanese patrol craft issued radio warnings to compel the 2,000-tonne vessel to steer away southeastward after it conducted hydrographic survey operations near critical Taiwanese military ports. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Aug 2026Mainland Chinese research ship spotted near Taiwan’s largest naval base
Diplomatic Friction over Sovereignty Claims
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim publicly endorsed Beijing's stance on Taiwan during an interview, characterizing Taiwan as a province of China and backing Beijing's right to pursue reunification. Beijing praised the statement, whereas Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued an official rebuke warning that such remarks undermine commercial relations and Taiwanese investment confidence in Malaysia. The Diplomat · 20 Aug 2026China Praises Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim For Supportive Comments on Taiwan
Capital Infrastructure Defense Drills
Republic of China Military Police and Army units executed urban defense maneuvers across Taipei and Taoyuan under exercise Han Kuang 42. Troops deployed newly delivered M1A2T Abrams main battle tanks, CM-34 Clouded Leopard armored vehicles, Kestrel anti-tank weapons, and Stinger air-defense systems to secure Taipei Metro stations and the Taoyuan International Airport perimeter against simulated invasion forces. USNI News · 21 Aug 2026How Taiwan’s Elite Military Police Plan to Defend TaipeiUSNI News · 18 Aug 2026Taiwan’s Tanks
Assessment
Chinese maritime surveillance off southern Taiwan and Taiwanese defensive rehearsals reflect ongoing strategic friction without indicators of active military conflict.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
1 more
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.