← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces struck Russian Su-33 and MiG-29 fighter jets and an Orion drone at Vityazevo airfield in Krasnodar Krai. Ukrinform · 23 Aug 2026Ukrainian drones strike two Russian aircraft, eight radar systems and S-400 battalion positionThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 23 Aug 2026Ukraine strikes 2 Russian fighters, air defense assets in Krasnodar Krai, drone commander says
- A Russian drone struck a stopped passenger train at Lymanivka station in Kharkiv Oblast, killing one civilian and injuring four others. Kyiv Post · 23 Aug 2026Russian Drone Strike on Kharkiv Train Kills 1, Injures 4Ukrainska Pravda · 23 Aug 2026Russian drone hits train in Kharkiv Oblast: several killed and injuredUkrinform · 23 Aug 2026Russian UAV strikes electric train in Kharkiv region, killing female passenger
- Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Iskander ballistic missile launcher deployed near the Ukrainian border in a targeted counter-battery operation. Ukrinform · 23 Aug 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Iskander launcher near Ukraine’s border – ZelenskyThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 23 Aug 2026'Hunting their launch sites' — Zelensky reveals new details about Ukraine's ballistic missile defense
- Russian Shahed drones damaged an energy infrastructure facility in Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast, causing partial power outages. Ukrinform · 23 Aug 2026Russian forces attack energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv region
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck an Ozon commercial logistics warehouse in Orenburg, Russia. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 23 Aug 2026Ukrainian drones reportedly strike Wildberries rival, Ozon, in Russia's Orenburg
Airfield and Radar Interdiction
Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces targeted Russian air assets and radar installations across southern Russia and occupied Crimea. Strikes hit Su-33 and MiG-29 fighters at Vityazevo airfield in Krasnodar Krai, alongside Nebo-U, Podlyot, and ST-68 radar systems in Rostov Oblast, Krasnodar Krai, and Yevpatoria. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Russian Iskander ballistic missile launcher near the border to disrupt tactical missile launches. Ukrinform · 23 Aug 2026Ukrainian forces strike Russian Iskander launcher near Ukraine’s border – ZelenskyKyiv Post · 23 Aug 2026Ukraine Strikes Radars, Drone Sites in Crimea and BelgorodUkrinform · 23 Aug 2026Ukrainian drones strike two Russian aircraft, eight radar systems and S-400 battalion position
Civilian Transport Infrastructure Strikes
Russian forces conducted targeted aerial strikes against Ukrainian railway infrastructure in Kharkiv and Odesa oblasts. A Russian drone hit a Lozova-Kharkiv passenger train at Lymanivka station, killing one civilian, while a jet-powered Shahed drone struck the locomotive of passenger train No. 147 in Odesa Oblast. Additional Russian drone strikes hit an energy facility in Voznesensk, Mykolaiv Oblast, inflicting regional power disruptions. Kyiv Post · 23 Aug 2026Russian Drone Strike on Kharkiv Train Kills 1, Injures 4Ukrainska Pravda · 23 Aug 2026Russian drone hits train in Kharkiv Oblast: several killed and injuredUkrinform · 23 Aug 2026Russian forces attack energy infrastructure in Mykolaiv region
Logistics and Economic Infrastructure
Ukrainian long-range uncrewed aerial vehicles expanded deep strikes against Russian commercial supply chains inside the Russian Federation. Ukrainian drones struck an Ozon marketplace logistics center in Orenburg following a prior strike on the company's Samara facility, alongside long-range attacks targeting the Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 23 Aug 2026Ukrainian drones reportedly strike Wildberries rival, Ozon, in Russia's OrenburgThe Moscow Times - Independent News From Russia · 22 Aug 2026Ukrainian Drone Attacks Kill Multiple People Across Russia, Hit Ozon Warehouse
Assessment
The conflict maintains high intensity characterized by reciprocal long-range strikes against military, energy, and commercial logistics targets without significant ground territorial shifts.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.