← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- The Israeli military stated it captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon following Iranian retaliatory warnings. Haaretz latest headlines · 3 Sep 2026IDF says it took over strategic Hezbollah stronghold after Iran reportedly threatened strikesJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 3 Sep 2026Iran warns US of major retaliation if Israel attacks Hezbollah-held Lebanon ridge
- Israeli drone strikes killed two people on a motorcycle in the southern Lebanese village of Rameh. אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026Two killed in the strike ☝️according to Lebanese sources.אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: Casualties in an Israeli UAV strike on a motorcycle in the village of Rameh in Nabatieh District, at the foot of the Ali al-Taher ridge.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 4 Sep 2026IDF to conduct strikes on Lebanon in coming hours, Upper Galilee Regional Council announces
- Israeli special forces captured Hamas internal security chief Moein Muhammad al-Arabeed during a raid in Gaza City. FDD's Long War Journal · 3 Sep 2026IDF captures Hamas security chief, reports 29 Gaza ceasefire violations Aug. 19–Sept. 3
- An Israeli drone strike killed Hamas operative Ramzi Abu Rida in the Mawasi area of Khan Yunis. אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza Strip:
- Israeli Duvdevan forces arrested five armed Palestinian suspects during a military operation in Qabatiya. אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: In a special operation in the Menashe Brigade: Fighters from the Duvdevan Unit, guided by the Shin Bet, arrested five terrorists who were planning to carry out an attackNews from Israel · 4 Sep 2026IDF foils imminent terror attack, arrests five-man cell
Ali al-Taher Ridge Operations
The Israeli military stated it took control of the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon. Iranian officials warned the United States that Iran would retaliate against Israeli attacks on the ridge where Iranian military personnel operate with Hezbollah fighters. Israeli aircraft conducted strikes in Rameh, Rumman, and Nabatieh al-Fawqa, killing at least two people. אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: Casualties in an Israeli UAV strike on a motorcycle in the village of Rameh in Nabatieh District, at the foot of the Ali al-Taher ridge.Haaretz latest headlines · 3 Sep 2026IDF says it took over strategic Hezbollah stronghold after Iran reportedly threatened strikesJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 3 Sep 2026Iran warns US of major retaliation if Israel attacks Hezbollah-held Lebanon ridge
Gaza Yellow Line Engagements
Israeli special operations forces captured Hamas internal security chief Moein Muhammad al-Arabeed during a raid in Gaza City. Israeli fighter jets struck targets in Shuja'iyya after unidentified fighters directed fire at Israeli troops east of the Yellow Line. An Israeli drone strike killed Hamas operative Ramzi Abu Rida in Mawasi near Khan Yunis. The Israeli military raised Southern Command alert levels over potential Hamas responses. FDD's Long War Journal · 3 Sep 2026IDF captures Hamas security chief, reports 29 Gaza ceasefire violations Aug. 19–Sept. 3אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026The Air Force struck in the Strip early this morning after fire was directed at IDF forcesJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 4 Sep 2026IDF raises alert level over concerns of a possible Hamas response to Gaza strikes
West Bank Counterterrorism Raids
Israeli Duvdevan unit soldiers arrested five Palestinian men during an operation in Qabatiya. Israeli forces seized an M16 rifle and military equipment during the raid. אבו עלי אקספרס · 4 Sep 2026IDF Spokesperson: In a special operation in the Menashe Brigade: Fighters from the Duvdevan Unit, guided by the Shin Bet, arrested five terrorists who were planning to carry out an attackNews from Israel · 4 Sep 2026IDF foils imminent terror attack, arrests five-man cell
Israeli Submarine Fleet Acquisition
Shipbuilder ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems delivered the Dolphin-class submarine INS Drakon to the Israeli Navy. The submarine left Germany equipped with air-independent propulsion and new missile capabilities. Naval News · 3 Sep 2026TKMS Delivers INS Drakon to Israel: Final Dolphin-class Submarine Features New Missile Capability
Assessment
Israeli control of the Ali al-Taher ridge alongside intensified strikes in Gaza increases short-term risk of cross-border retaliation by Hezbollah and Hamas.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
4 more
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.