← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met US Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels. News - South China Morning Post · 4 Sep 2026China, US military commanders snap 2-year break with talks in Canada
- China Coast Guard vessel Putuoshan conducted a maritime patrol in waters east of Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 3 Sep 2026Beijing ramps up coastguard patrols and scientific surveys near Taiwan
- Taiwan's Cabinet approved a NT$145.7 billion supplementary defense budget, pushing 2026 defense spending above NT$1 trillion. News - South China Morning Post · 3 Sep 2026Extra funds push Taiwan’s defence spending past NT$1 trillion for the first time
- Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense submitted a report assessing People's Liberation Army blockade and landing capabilities. News - South China Morning Post · 1 Sep 2026Mainland China stepping up preparations for Taiwan blockade, report saysTaipei Times · 2 Sep 2026MND report flags PLA efforts to boost Taiwan landing capabilities
- Taiwan's Nuclear Safety Commission scheduled a defense exercise at the decommissioned Guosheng Nuclear Power Plant for September. Taipei Times · 3 Sep 2026Taiwan nuclear safety drill to include first-ever anti-drone exercise
High-Level Military Dialogue
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met US Admiral Samuel Paparo at the Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defence Conference in Victoria, Canada. The meeting established direct contact between senior commanders responsible for Taiwan Strait operations following a two-year hiatus. The commanders addressed risk management and operational safety between American and Chinese forces. News - South China Morning Post · 4 Sep 2026China, US military commanders snap 2-year break with talks in Canada
Coast Guard Operations and Blockade Readiness
China Coast Guard spokesman Jiang Lue announced that the patrol vessel Putuoshan executed law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan. Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense submitted its 2026 military power report to the Legislative Yuan. The report assessed that the People's Liberation Army is expanding joint air and sea blockade rehearsals, firepower strikes, and island landing operations around Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 1 Sep 2026Mainland China stepping up preparations for Taiwan blockade, report saysNews - South China Morning Post · 3 Sep 2026Beijing ramps up coastguard patrols and scientific surveys near TaiwanTaipei Times · 2 Sep 2026MND report flags PLA efforts to boost Taiwan landing capabilities
Defense Spending and Drone Procurement
Taiwan's Cabinet approved a NT$145.7 billion supplementary defense budget, raising total 2026 defense expenditure above NT$1 trillion. The allocation equals approximately 3.83 percent of Taiwan's gross domestic product. The supplementary funds allocate NT$133.4 billion for military investments, including uncrewed aerial systems and the Chiang Kung mid-tier anti-tactical ballistic missile system. News - South China Morning Post · 3 Sep 2026Extra funds push Taiwan’s defence spending past NT$1 trillion for the first time
Critical Infrastructure Countermeasures
Taiwan's Nuclear Safety Commission scheduled a live emergency exercise at the decommissioned Guosheng Nuclear Power Plant in New Taipei City for September 8 to 10. The exercise incorporates drone-jamming and pursuit tactics to protect energy facilities against uncrewed surveillance or strikes. Taipei Times · 3 Sep 2026Taiwan nuclear safety drill to include first-ever anti-drone exercise
Assessment
Resumed theatre-level commander dialogue between the United States and China provides a risk-management mechanism alongside expanding Taiwanese defense spending and ongoing Chinese maritime patrols around Taiwan.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.