← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. airstrikes in Kuhestak killed four civilians at a wedding event in southern Iran. World news | The Guardian · 4 Sep 2026Iranian town mourns after deadly strike on weddingAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 4 Sep 2026‘Things happen’: How Vance’s comment on Iran wedding strike fits US patternBBC News · 3 Sep 2026US investigating if missile hit Iran wedding, Vance says
- Iranian forces launched missile and drone attacks against U.S. installations at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait. Tehran Times · 4 Sep 2026Six Iranian Navy personnel martyred in US strikes in southern IranWorld news | The Guardian · 3 Sep 2026Iran targets US bases as Israel warns sanctions could drive Tehran to ‘desperate steps’
- The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Turkey-based Golden Global Bank for facilitating IRGC Quds Force financial transactions. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 4 Sep 2026US sanctions Turkish bank, two subsidiaries to pressure IranAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 4 Sep 2026US sanctions Turkey-based bank over Iran tiesAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 4 Sep 2026US targets Turkish entities with Iran-related sanctions
- South Korea began reviewing a potential deployment of a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft to the Strait of Hormuz. World news | The Guardian · 4 Sep 2026South Korea pushes back on reports it is readying Hormuz deployment amid US pressureAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Sep 2026South Korea reviewing military options for Hormuz, no decision made, official says
- Suspensions of U.S. sanctions exemptions forced the cancellation of TOEFL and GRE educational examinations inside Iran. World | Deutsche Welle · 2 Sep 2026US sanctions halt TOEFL and GRE tests in Iran, disrupting study plans
Kuhestak Wedding Strike Probe
U.S. Central Command initiated an internal investigation into a September 1 missile attack in Kuhestak, Hormozgan province, which Iranian officials state killed four civilians and injured over 60 at a wedding ceremony. U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed skepticism regarding Iranian casualty reporting while acknowledging the inquiry, as Iranian state media reported that recent U.S. strikes in southern Iran also killed 13 military personnel, including six regular navy members and four IRGC Aerospace Force personnel. World news | The Guardian · 4 Sep 2026Iranian town mourns after deadly strike on weddingAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Sep 2026Number of Iranian military personnel reported killed by US strikes this week rises to 13BBC News · 3 Sep 2026US investigating if missile hit Iran wedding, Vance says
Gulf Base Reciprocal Attacks
Iranian military forces launched ballistic missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles against U.S. positions at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait and Al Minhad Air Base in the United Arab Emirates, targeting satellite communications infrastructure, aircraft hangars, and radar installations. Official documentation submitted by Qatar to the International Telecommunication Union confirmed that Iranian retaliatory strikes within Qatari territory targeted U.S. military facilities without impacting civilian areas. Tehran Times · 4 Sep 2026Six Iranian Navy personnel martyred in US strikes in southern IranTehran Times · 4 Sep 2026Qatari ITU submission confirms Iran’s retaliatory operations hit only US military assetsWorld news | The Guardian · 3 Sep 2026Iran targets US bases as Israel warns sanctions could drive Tehran to ‘desperate steps’
Secondary Financial Sanctions
The U.S. Department of the Treasury designated Istanbul-based Golden Global Bank and two investment subsidiaries under Operation Economic Outcast, accusing the firm of executing tens of millions of dollars in transfers for the IRGC Quds Force. The sanctions action accompanies broader regulatory changes suspending U.S. educational exemptions, which halted TOEFL and GRE testing inside Iran and disrupted foreign university admissions for Iranian applicants. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 4 Sep 2026US sanctions Turkish bank, two subsidiaries to pressure IranAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 4 Sep 2026US sanctions Turkey-based bank over Iran tiesWorld | Deutsche Welle · 2 Sep 2026US sanctions halt TOEFL and GRE tests in Iran, disrupting study plans
Strait of Hormuz Defense Planning
The South Korean presidential office confirmed ongoing reviews regarding the deployment of a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft and a naval logistics ship to support free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following pressure from Washington. Meanwhile, Iranian Petroleum Minister Mohsen Paknejad stated that Iranian maritime oil exports continue through alternative routes and land transit corridors aimed at bypassing the U.S. naval blockade. World news | The Guardian · 4 Sep 2026South Korea pushes back on reports it is readying Hormuz deployment amid US pressureTehran Times · 4 Sep 2026From naval blockade to land corridors: Iran's strategic pivotAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 3 Sep 2026South Korea reviewing military options for Hormuz, no decision made, official says
Assessment
Sustained long-range strike exchanges against regional military bases alongside expanding secondary sanctions make diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran unlikely in the near term.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.