← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Hezbollah launched two explosive drones toward IDF troops in the southern Lebanon security zone, with soldiers intercepting one. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Escalation in the north: Hezbollah again launched explosive drones toward IDF forces – the IDF’s red evacuation maps have returned. The IDF is striking in southern Lebanon.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 6 Sep 2026IDF begins strikes in southern Lebanon following drone attack by HezbollahNews from Israel · 5 Sep 2026Hezbollah drone targets IDF troops, Israel strikes back
- Israeli airstrikes across southern Lebanon killed four people, including Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Ghadar in Nabatieh al-Fawqa. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026The Lebanese Ministry of Health: 4 killed and 20 wounded in the Israeli strikes this morning in southern Lebanon.אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026In the building of the Ghandour Hospital that was struck this morning by the IDF in the village of Nabatieh al-Fawqa in southern Lebanon, there were no doctors and no patients. According to Lebanese…Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 6 Sep 2026Israeli air attacks on Lebanon kill at least four
- Israeli forces issued forced evacuation warnings for a building in Arab Salim before conducting air strikes in the area. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Escalation in the north: Hezbollah again launched explosive drones toward IDF forces – the IDF’s red evacuation maps have returned. The IDF is striking in southern Lebanon.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 6 Sep 2026IDF begins strikes in southern Lebanon following drone attack by HezbollahAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 6 Sep 2026Israeli air attacks on Lebanon kill at least four
- IDF and Shin Bet forces arrested ten Hamas operatives and seized a rocket during an operation in Aqaba. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Joint statement from the IDF Spokesperson and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) Spokesperson:
- Israeli UAVs conducted strikes on targets in the Shati refugee camp and eastern Gaza City. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza Strip:אבו עלי אקספרס · 5 Sep 2026Gazan reports of a strike in the east of Gaza City a short time ago.
Southern Lebanon Violations
Hezbollah launched two explosive drones targeting IDF personnel in the southern border security zone, prompting IDF forces to intercept one device. The IDF launched retaliatory airstrikes across Nabatieh, Arab Salim, and Kfar Reman, killing four people and wounding 20 according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. Among those killed in Nabatieh al-Fawqa was Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Ghadar. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026The Lebanese Ministry of Health: 4 killed and 20 wounded in the Israeli strikes this morning in southern Lebanon.אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Escalation in the north: Hezbollah again launched explosive drones toward IDF forces – the IDF’s red evacuation maps have returned. The IDF is striking in southern Lebanon.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 6 Sep 2026IDF begins strikes in southern Lebanon following drone attack by Hezbollah
Gaza and West Bank Operations
Israeli military drones struck structures in the Shati refugee camp and eastern Gaza City. In the West Bank town of Aqaba, a joint IDF and Shin Bet operation under the Menashe Brigade arrested ten Hamas operatives and recovered an unlaunched rocket. אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza Strip:אבו עלי אקספרס · 6 Sep 2026Joint statement from the IDF Spokesperson and the Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) Spokesperson:אבו עלי אקספרס · 5 Sep 2026Gazan reports of a strike in the east of Gaza City a short time ago.
Regional Alignment and Readiness
Israeli intelligence reports suggest ongoing Iranian coordination with Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi forces for potential multi-front operations. IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir instructed military commanders to maintain heightened readiness across all fronts against potential surprise attacks. News from Israel · 6 Sep 2026Zamir warns IDF must be ready for surprise attack across all frontsJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 5 Sep 2026Iran coordinates with Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis for attack, Israeli intel. suggests
Assessment
Tactical drone launches and retaliatory strikes across southern Lebanon demonstrate the fragility of existing cessation frameworks, maintaining risks of renewed escalation.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
4 more
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
- 2026-08-12
Israeli drone strike targets Hamas commander in Gaza following week-long operational lull
The Israeli military launched an airstrike in northern Gaza targeting a Hamas operational commander, marking the first such strike in over a week. The action tested fragile security arrangements as international diplomatic talks regarding post-conflict monitoring continue.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.