← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on 5 September to discuss war settlement proposals. Kyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026US Sanctions Chief Joins Moscow Talks as Putin Cites War GoalsKyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026US Envoys Hold 3-Hour Kremlin Talks With PutinWorld news | The Guardian · 6 Sep 2026US envoys Kushner and Witkoff arrive in Kyiv after talks with Putin
- Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a proposed four-day frontline ceasefire during discussions with visiting US negotiators. Kyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Combat Continues as Russia Rejects CeasefireThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 5 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 7, injure 51 over past day across Ukraine as Moscow rejects ceasefireKyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026US Envoys Hold 3-Hour Kremlin Talks With Putin
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Ryazan oil refinery in central Russia overnight on 6 September. Ukrainska Pravda · 6 Sep 2026Russian Defence Ministry claims over 250 Ukrainian drones attacked RussiaThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 6 Sep 2026Ukrainian drones reportedly target Ryazan oil refinery, cities across RussiaUkrainska Pravda · 6 Sep 2026Ukraine's General Staff: defence forces hit Ryazan oil refinery, airfield and air defence assets in Russia
- Russian forces struck logistics warehouses in Dnipro with drones on 6 September. Ukrainska Pravda · 6 Sep 2026Russia strikes logistics company warehouses in Dnipro, several injuredKyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026Russian Strike Hits Dnipro Logistics Warehouses, Injuring 2
- Russian drone strikes killed three civilians in Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Oblast on 5 September. Ukrinform · 6 Sep 2026Four killed, eight injured in Russian attacks on Kharkiv region over past dayKyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026Russian Strike Hits Dnipro Logistics Warehouses, Injuring 2
Moscow and Kyiv Envoy Talks
US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held a three-hour meeting in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on 5 September before traveling to Kyiv to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on 6 September. Acting US Treasury sanctions chief Gene Lange joined preparatory talks in Moscow with Russian representative Kirill Dmitriev to discuss economic sanctions and potential settlement terms. Kyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026US Sanctions Chief Joins Moscow Talks as Putin Cites War GoalsKyiv Post · 6 Sep 2026US Envoys Hold 3-Hour Kremlin Talks With PutinWorld news | The Guardian · 6 Sep 2026US envoys Kushner and Witkoff arrive in Kyiv after talks with Putin
Frontline Ceasefire Rejection
Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a proposed four-day frontline ceasefire surrounding the visits of US envoys, maintaining that Russian forces would continue operations to achieve their military objectives. Ukrainian forces confirmed that active ground combat continues uninterrupted, as unilateral operational pauses would expose defending troops to ongoing Russian strikes. Kyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Combat Continues as Russia Rejects CeasefireThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 5 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 7, injure 51 over past day across Ukraine as Moscow rejects ceasefireThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 5 Sep 2026Russia rejects truce, kills 4 in attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Target Class Asymmetry
Russian forces directed long-range strikes against Ukrainian civilian transportation networks, logistics warehouses in Dnipro, and border crossing infrastructure at Orlivka. Ukrainian forces directed long-range drone strikes against Russian military assets and war-funding industry, hitting the Ryazan oil refinery, an airfield in Rostov Oblast, and two Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. Kyiv Post · 5 Sep 2026Ukrainian Forces Strike Drone Infrastructure in BryanskUkrainska Pravda · 6 Sep 2026Russian forces attack transport infrastructure in Mykolaiv Oblast, killing driverUkrainska Pravda · 6 Sep 2026Russia strikes logistics company warehouses in Dnipro, several injured
European Airspace Surveillance Alert
Romanian defense authorities placed air defense systems on combat alert and prepared Spanish F-18 fighters to scramble after detecting Russian aerial targets moving toward the Ukrainian border along the Danube near Tulcea County on 5 September. Ukrinform · 6 Sep 2026Romania issues air-raid alert amid Russian attack on Ukraine
Assessment
Open interstate conflict continues at maximum intensity across active front lines and strategic depth, with diplomatic engagement producing no operational pause or reduction in strike output.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.