← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- U.S. Central Command forces destroyed three Iranian oil tankers near Jask and Kharg Island. World news | The Guardian · 5 Sep 2026US military says it struck three Iranian tankers after American warships came under missile attackAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 5 Sep 2026US military strikes oil tankers as Iran vows tougher reprisalsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 5 Sep 2026US strikes three Iranian oil tankers after IRGC attack on American naval ships, Central Command says
- The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched ballistic missiles targeting two U.S. Navy warships in the Persian Gulf. World news | The Guardian · 5 Sep 2026US military says it struck three Iranian tankers after American warships came under missile attackAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Iran to tackle economic issues, says further attacks will be 'more painful'AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 5 Sep 2026US strikes three Iranian oil tankers after IRGC attack on American naval ships, Central Command says
- Iranian forces claimed a direct strike on an unmanned U.S. vessel entering the Strait of Hormuz. France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 6 Sep 2026Iran claims strike on US ship in Strait of Hormuz as fighting escalates
- Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf threatened harsher military reprisals against future U.S. strikes. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Iran to tackle economic issues, says further attacks will be 'more painful'AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Iran threatens greater force if US launches more attacks
- U.S. President Donald Trump threatened military strikes targeting the underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear complex near Natanz. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026Why is Trump threatening to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain again, now?
Tanker Warfare and Anti-Ship Attacks
U.S. forces targeted Iranian oil tankers funding state and IRGC operations, while Iranian forces targeted U.S. Navy warships and unmanned vessels with ballistic missiles. U.S. Central Command disabled two tankers and destroyed a third off Kharg Island and Jask to enforce a commercial blockade, while IRGC units attempted to hit a U.S. aircraft carrier and destroyer patrolling near the Strait of Hormuz. World news | The Guardian · 5 Sep 2026US military says it struck three Iranian tankers after American warships came under missile attackAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 5 Sep 2026US military strikes oil tankers as Iran vows tougher reprisalsFrance 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines · 6 Sep 2026Iran claims strike on US ship in Strait of Hormuz as fighting escalates
Nuclear Facility Threats
U.S. leadership threatened air strikes against Pickaxe Mountain, a fortified underground site adjacent to the Natanz enrichment complex. Iranian air defense commanders maintained heightened readiness around strategic facilities, while Iranian political figures warned that strikes on nuclear infrastructure would provoke unrestricted counterstrikes. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 5 Sep 2026Why is Trump threatening to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain again, now?
Economic Squeeze and Port Blockade
Naval enforcement and secondary financial designations reduced commercial vessel traffic at Shahid Rajaee and Imam Khomeini ports. U.S. authorities aim to cut state energy revenues, while Tehran continues attempting to levy transit fees and restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz to counter the embargo. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 5 Sep 2026US military strikes oil tankers as Iran vows tougher reprisalsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Analysis-Iran's Hormuz leverage wanes as US economic squeeze bitesIran International · 5 Sep 2026Satellite images show Iran’s key ports falling quiet under US blockade
Escalation Rhetoric and Reprisals
Iranian officials declared an end to proportionate responses, promising faster and more intense attacks against U.S. regional assets if strikes continue. Iranian negotiators simultaneously rejected diplomatic compromises that do not include the complete removal of foreign blockades and economic sanctions. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Iran to tackle economic issues, says further attacks will be 'more painful'AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 6 Sep 2026Iran threatens greater force if US launches more attacksTehran Times · 5 Sep 2026Tehran warns Americans against becoming ‘cannon fodder’ in war on Iran
Assessment
Direct strike exchanges between U.S. naval forces and Iranian coastal missile units reflect sustained military combat with negligible prospects for an immediate ceasefire.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.