← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated no direct negotiations are underway with Israel, calling for Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Haaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026Report: Israel-Lebanon talks set for next week postponed until OctoberAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks postponed as explosions rock southern Lebanon
- The United States State Department scheduled preliminary Israel-Lebanon ambassadorial meetings in Washington while postponing formal Rome talks until October. Haaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome reportedly postponed; Lebanese PM: no negotiations underwayJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 11 Sep 2026Upcoming Israel-Lebanon talks to take place in Washington instead of Rome, US State Department says
- Israeli military officials confirmed Israeli forces will maintain positions in southern Lebanon pending diplomatic negotiations. Haaretz latest headlines · 11 Sep 2026After bombing key Hezbollah stronghold, IDF officials rule out Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon
- Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned Hezbollah against rebuilding military facilities after Israeli forces demolished the Ali al-Taher tunnel network. News from Israel · 11 Sep 2026IDF bracing for Hezbollah retaliation to destruction of Ali al-Taher tunnelsNews from Israel · 11 Sep 2026After destroying Hezbollah tunnels, Zamir issues stark warning
- An Israeli airstrike in Khan Yunis killed Hamas operative Jihad Ismail, who Israeli sources stated participated in the October 7 attack. אבו עלי אקספרס · 11 Sep 2026The IDF this morning eliminated Jihad Ismail in a strike in Khan Yunis – according to Gaza sources, he was a military operative who crossed into the home front area on October 7.
Stalled Diplomatic Framework
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun stated during a visit to Nabatieh that no direct negotiations with Israel are underway, reiterating demands for full Israeli military withdrawal. The United States State Department scheduled preliminary ambassadorial talks in Washington for next week while postponing broader negotiations in Rome until October. Haaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks in Rome reportedly postponed; Lebanese PM: no negotiations underwayHaaretz latest headlines · 12 Sep 2026Report: Israel-Lebanon talks set for next week postponed until OctoberAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026Israel-Lebanon talks postponed as explosions rock southern Lebanon
Southern Lebanon Security Stance
Following the demolition of Hezbollah subterranean infrastructure at Ali al-Taher Ridge, Israeli military commanders ruled out a withdrawal from southern Lebanon pending formal diplomatic agreements. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned Hezbollah against attempting to rebuild border positions as Israeli forces prepared for potential retaliation. Haaretz latest headlines · 11 Sep 2026After bombing key Hezbollah stronghold, IDF officials rule out Israeli withdrawal from south LebanonFDD's Long War Journal · 11 Sep 2026IDF destroys Hezbollah underground command complex at Ali al Taher, withdraws from ridgeNews from Israel · 11 Sep 2026IDF bracing for Hezbollah retaliation to destruction of Ali al-Taher tunnels
Gaza Operations and Postwar Planning
Israeli airstrikes in Khan Yunis killed Hamas operative Jihad Ismail and Khan Yunis Brigade commander Muhammad al-Yazouri. Meanwhile, the Board of Peace signed an agreement in Pristina with Kosovo to contribute personnel to the proposed International Stabilization Force in Gaza. אבו עלי אקספרס · 11 Sep 2026The IDF this morning eliminated Jihad Ismail in a strike in Khan Yunis – according to Gaza sources, he was a military operative who crossed into the home front area on October 7.FDD's Long War Journal · 11 Sep 2026Board of Peace focuses on International Stabilization Force for Gazaאבו עלי אקספרס · 11 Sep 2026The funeral of the Khan Yunis Brigade Commander, Mohammad Al-Yazouri, who was eliminated last night in an Israeli UAV strike.
Assessment
Delayed diplomatic negotiating schedules and sustained Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon keep tactical tension near critical thresholds.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.