← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, causing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026Iraq orders closure of Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran, two sources sayIran International · 12 Sep 2026Trump says Iran likely behind Saudi pipeline attack as Iraq tightens border crossingsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026Trump says Iran probably responsible for attack on Saudi pipeline
- Iraqi security forces closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran following aerial attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026Iraq orders closure of Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran, two sources say
- Heavy fighting between Iranian security forces and armed gunmen in Saravan reportedly caused dozens of military casualties. Iran International · 12 Sep 2026Heavy fighting spreads in southeastern Iran, with security force casualties reported
- The United Arab Emirates initiated plans to disperse critical artificial intelligence data center infrastructure away from centralized targets. Tehran Times · 11 Sep 2026Iranian strikes force UAE to dismantle plans for its AI mega-campusAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026Exclusive-UAE revises AI data center plan after Iranian attacks, sources say
- Omani-hosted diplomatic talks regarding Strait of Hormuz transit rights are not expected to produce a signed agreement. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026No signed Hormuz deal expected yet from Oman meeting on Monday, Iranian official says
Saudi Pipeline Strike
Drones launched from Iraqi territory struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, shutting down a major crude export conduit that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump publicly attributed the attack to Iran. Iraqi security forces subsequently closed the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran and initiated operations to locate those responsible. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026Iraq orders closure of Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran, two sources sayIran International · 12 Sep 2026Trump says Iran likely behind Saudi pipeline attack as Iraq tightens border crossingsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026Trump says Iran probably responsible for attack on Saudi pipeline
Hormuz Diplomacy
Iranian representatives prepared to attend Omani-mediated talks in Muscat regarding maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, though Iranian officials stated no formal agreement is expected. Tehran continues to demand transit fee collection rights, which Oman opposes. Bahrain announced it will boycott the meeting, while South Korea dispatched a fact-finding team to assess potential maritime deployments to the corridor. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 12 Sep 2026No signed Hormuz deal expected yet from Oman meeting on Monday, Iranian official saysTehran Times · 11 Sep 2026Iranian, South Korean FMs hold phone call as protesters in Seoul oppose Hormuz deployment
Gulf Infrastructure Adjustment
The United Arab Emirates began decentralizing a planned 5-gigawatt artificial intelligence data center project led by G42 into underground sites in Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah. The decision follows Iranian missile and drone strikes against technology targets in the region. Separately, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi cited public statements by U.S. Navy officials acknowledging severe structural damage to the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain from previous Iranian strikes. Tehran Times · 11 Sep 2026US acting Navy secretary: Iran ‘blew the hell out of’ US base in BahrainTehran Times · 11 Sep 2026Iranian strikes force UAE to dismantle plans for its AI mega-campusAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 11 Sep 2026Exclusive-UAE revises AI data center plan after Iranian attacks, sources say
Southeastern Iranian Clashes
Armed clashes between Iranian security forces and unidentified gunmen spread across Saravan in Sistan-Baluchestan province, causing dozens of reported casualties among military personnel. Simultaneously, Iranian hardliners called for direct military action against Israel following renewed Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Iran International · 12 Sep 2026Heavy fighting spreads in southeastern Iran, with security force casualties reportedIran International · 11 Sep 2026Israeli attacks on Hezbollah fuel hardline calls for Iran to escalate
Assessment
Sustained attacks on regional energy conduits and unresolved maritime governance disputes maintain acute conflict risk across the theater.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.