← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces launched 129 drones and 14 missiles at Odesa and Ukrainian industrial sites, killing 11 people and injuring 96 nationwide. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Russia attacks Ukraine with missiles and drones, strikes reported at 20 locationsThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 12 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill 11, injure 96 across Ukraine as Odesa comes under mass overnight strikeKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Russian Missile and Drone Barrage Hits Odesa Region, Injuring 35
- Ukrainian SBU drones struck a Russian FPV drone production facility and storage warehouses in Taganrog. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Drones attack Tolyatti and Taganrog in Russia, sparking fires at industrial sites – photos, videosUkrinform · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes FPV drone production facility, UAV warehouses near Taganrog
- Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the KuibyshevAzot chemical facility in Tolyatti, causing fires at the plant. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesUkrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Drones attack Tolyatti and Taganrog in Russia, sparking fires at industrial sites – photos, videos
- Russian ballistic missiles struck the Zaporizhstal plant in Zaporizhzhia and the ArcelorMittal plant in Kryvyi Rih, damaging industrial equipment. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Two people killed in Russian missile strike on ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih steel plantKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Russian Ballistic Missiles Strike Zaporizhstal Steel Plant, Injuring 4Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Russia attacks Zaporizhstal for third time over past month, four injured
- Ukrainian forces executed precision strikes against Russian UAV command posts and military storage facilities in occupied Polohy, Zaliznyi Port, and Alchevsk. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Drone Command Posts and Supply Depots
Strategic Industrial Interdiction
Ukrainian SBU and defense forces deployed long-range drones against Russian defense-industrial plants, hitting the KuibyshevAzot chemical facility in Tolyatti to disrupt explosive precursor manufacturing and striking FPV drone production and storage warehouses in Taganrog. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesUkrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Drones attack Tolyatti and Taganrog in Russia, sparking fires at industrial sites – photos, videosUkrinform · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine strikes FPV drone production facility, UAV warehouses near Taganrog
Urban and Heavy Industry Bombardment
Russian forces launched 129 drones and 14 missiles targeting civilian residential districts in Odesa, railway facilities in Lutsk and Fastiv, and heavy industrial plants. Ballistic strikes inflicted structural damage and casualties at the Zaporizhstal metallurgical plant in Zaporizhzhia and the ArcelorMittal steel facility in Kryvyi Rih. Ukrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Two people killed in Russian missile strike on ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih steel plantUkrainska Pravda · 12 Sep 2026Russia attacks Ukraine with missiles and drones, strikes reported at 20 locationsKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Russian Ballistic Missiles Strike Zaporizhstal Steel Plant, Injuring 4
Occupied Rear Depot Targeting
Ukrainian forces conducted precision drone and artillery strikes against Russian military assets across occupied territory. Attacks struck Russian UAV command posts in Polohy and Zaliznyi Port along with drone warehouses in Donetsk, Selydove, Kurakhivka, and Alchevsk. Ukrinform · 12 Sep 2026Defense Forces strike Russian command posts and attack drone warehousesKyiv Post · 12 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Drone Command Posts and Supply Depots
Assessment
Open interstate war continues with Ukrainian forces targeting Russian military-industrial supply facilities and Russian forces firing missile barrages at Ukrainian urban centers and heavy industrial plants.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.