← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- Israeli military aircraft conducted airstrikes targeting reported Hezbollah positions across southern Lebanon. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026Two killed in Gaza City strike, IDF says it targeted car with Hamas terrorists
- Senior Israeli defense officials criticized the Lebanese Armed Forces for alleged cosmetic enforcement against Hezbollah infrastructure south of the Litani. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026IDF accuses Lebanese army of taking only ‘cosmetic’ action against Hezbollah
- Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles launched multiple strikes against tents and structures in Gaza City, Khan Younis, and Al-Zuwaida. אבו עלי אקספרס · 14 Sep 2026Casualties in a strike by an Israeli UAV (with three missiles) on the Ajjour family home near the maternity building of Shifa Hospital in western Gaza City.אבו עלי אקספרס · 14 Sep 2026Fifth UAV strike since this morning in the Gaza Strip:אבו עלי אקספרס · 14 Sep 2026Two additional UAV strikes in the past hour in the Gaza Strip
- Israeli military authorities initiated an internal investigation into potential intelligence leaks connected to the Gaza war documentary NAZA. Haaretz latest headlines · 14 Sep 2026IDF denies 'NAZA' documentary allegation it approved 500 civilian deaths in Gaza strikewww.israelhayom.com · 14 Sep 2026NAZA prompts massive IDF leak probe; legal action weighed against creators
- Human rights organization B'Tselem released a report alleging systematic Israeli government efforts to disrupt Palestinian civilian life in the West Bank. World news | The Guardian · 14 Sep 2026Israel accused of trying to ‘eliminate’ living conditions for Palestinians in West BankAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Israel working to eliminate Palestinian presence from West Bank, NGO warns
Southern Lebanon Operations
Israel Defense Forces launched airstrikes against targets in southern Lebanon while issuing Home Front Command alerts for northern Israeli border communities. Senior Israeli military officials stated that the Lebanese Armed Forces are failing to dismantle Hezbollah military infrastructure south of the Litani River. Israeli officials alleged that Lebanese army checkpoints permit Hezbollah operatives to traverse villages in southern Lebanon. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026Two killed in Gaza City strike, IDF says it targeted car with Hamas terroristsJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 13 Sep 2026IDF accuses Lebanese army of taking only ‘cosmetic’ action against Hezbollah
Gaza Airstrikes and Ground Casualties
Israeli unmanned aerial vehicles executed consecutive strikes hitting residential compounds and shelter tents across Gaza City, Khan Younis, Mawasi, and Al-Zuwaida. Medical officials reported at least ten Palestinian deaths and dozens of injuries over a 48-hour period, including a pregnant woman fatally shot near Khan Younis. Israel Defense Forces representatives confirmed targeting a vehicle in Tel Al-Hawa, alleging it contained two Hamas operatives. אבו עלי אקספרס · 14 Sep 2026Casualties in a strike by an Israeli UAV (with three missiles) on the Ajjour family home near the maternity building of Shifa Hospital in western Gaza City.World news | The Guardian · 13 Sep 2026Pregnant woman among more than 10 killed in Israeli attacks on Gazaאבו עלי אקספרס · 14 Sep 2026Fifth UAV strike since this morning in the Gaza Strip:
Intelligence Leaks and Targeting Disputes
Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir convened military leadership to open an investigation into potential security leaks associated with the documentary NAZA. Culture Minister Miki Zohar requested the Interior Ministry review revoking the citizenship of filmmakers Yuval Abraham and Rachel Szor. The Israel Defense Forces publicly rejected the film's allegations regarding automated target selection and expected civilian casualties in Gaza. World news | The Guardian · 13 Sep 2026Israeli minister threatens to strip Israeli film-makers of citizenship over Gaza documentary NAZAHaaretz latest headlines · 14 Sep 2026IDF denies 'NAZA' documentary allegation it approved 500 civilian deaths in Gaza strikeJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 14 Sep 2026'An act of treason': Politicians clash over 'NAZA' Gaza war film, label creators 'Israel-haters'
West Bank Governance and Arms Procurement
Human rights group B'Tselem issued a report stating Israeli policies systematically degrade Palestinian infrastructure and mobility in the West Bank. Western security sources reported that Iran requested jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 unmanned aerial vehicles from Russia for potential operations against United States and Israeli assets. JPost.com - Middle East News | The Jerusalem Post · 13 Sep 2026Iran requested new Russian Geran drones for attacks on Israeli, American targets amid warWorld news | The Guardian · 14 Sep 2026Israel accused of trying to ‘eliminate’ living conditions for Palestinians in West BankAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Israel working to eliminate Palestinian presence from West Bank, NGO warns
Assessment
Persistent tactical strikes across Gaza and southern Lebanon alongside public disputes over Lebanese enforcement protocols maintain high operational volatility without initiating wider regional escalation.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
- 2026-08-13
Israel and Lebanon reportedly reach agreement on monitoring framework for Hezbollah disarmament.
Israeli and Lebanese negotiators reportedly agreed on an oversight mechanism to supervise Hezbollah's disarmament as part of ongoing diplomatic talks. The development occurs amid continued friction over ceasefire implementation and localized military actions.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.