← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- An Indian Defence Ministry report stated an Indian S-400 system shot down a Pakistani aircraft at 314 kilometers during Operation Sindoor. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 13 Sep 2026S-400 destroyed Pakistani aircraft at 314 km during Operation Sindoor: Defence Ministry report
- Pakistan People's Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari rejected Indian statements linking Pakistan to the 2025 Pahalgam attack. Dawn - Home · 14 Sep 2026'India started a war based on a lie and lost miserably': Bilawal reacts to Indian media's attempt to link Pakistan to terrorism
- Pakistan urged the United Nations Security Council to strengthen sanctions and counter-terrorism measures against Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan. Dawn - Home · 12 Sep 2026Pakistan urges UN to close gaps in fight against evolving terror threat
- The Indian Army established skill development centers in Kupwara to support local employment initiatives for women in Jammu and Kashmir. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 14 Sep 2026Army-backed flag centre empowers 140 women in Kashmir’s Kupwara
- Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded bilateral meetings with African heads of state following the BRICS summit in New Delhi. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 14 Sep 2026Why the BRICS summit was a major diplomatic win for IndiaIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 13 Sep 2026India steps up Africa outreach as Modi holds talks with leaders from the continent
Kashmir Security and Civic Operations
Indian security forces maintained baseline counter-insurgency dispositions across Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian Army expanded local civic outreach initiatives in Kupwara, funding skill development centers to support municipal employment. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 14 Sep 2026Army-backed flag centre empowers 140 women in Kashmir’s Kupwara
BRICS Summit and Multilateral Outreach
Prime Minister Narendra Modi concluded the 18th BRICS Summit in New Delhi following bilateral engagements with Chinese President Xi Jinping and African heads of state. Discussions focused on regional trade infrastructure and global governance reforms as framed in the New Delhi Declaration 2026. India Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 14 Sep 2026Why the BRICS summit was a major diplomatic win for IndiaWorld news | The Guardian · 12 Sep 2026Xi Jinping gets red carpet at Brics summit amid thaw in India-China relationsIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 13 Sep 2026India steps up Africa outreach as Modi holds talks with leaders from the continent
Retrospective May 2025 Conflict Narrative
An Indian Defence Ministry annual report asserted that Indian air defenses intercepted a Pakistani aircraft at a range of 314 kilometers during Operation Sindoor in May 2025. Pakistan People's Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari publicly rejected Indian accounts connecting Pakistan to the pre-conflict Pahalgam attack. Dawn - Home · 14 Sep 2026'India started a war based on a lie and lost miserably': Bilawal reacts to Indian media's attempt to link Pakistan to terrorismIndia Latest News: Top National Headlines Today & Breaking News | The Hindu · 13 Sep 2026S-400 destroyed Pakistani aircraft at 314 km during Operation Sindoor: Defence Ministry report
Water Regime and Military Dispositions
Operational mechanisms under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty remain suspended under India's declared abeyance stance, which Pakistan continues to contest legally. Frontline military deployments along the Line of Control remain governed by the May 2025 DGMO cessation understanding.
Assessment
The theater remains stable at routine baseline levels, marked by competing political narratives surrounding the 2025 confrontation rather than immediate force mobilization or cross-border kinetic operations.
- 2026-08-31
Permanent Court of Arbitration orders India to uphold Indus Waters Treaty
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ordered India to uphold the Indus Waters Treaty and halt construction on a Kashmir hydropower project. India's Ministry of External Affairs rejected the ruling, asserting the court lacked legal jurisdiction.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 13/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 13/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.