← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Yemen War & Houthi Attacks
Saudi – Houthis conflict
- Ansar Allah launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 14 Sep 2026Houthis claim large-scale missile, drone attack on King Khalid Air Base in Saudi ArabiaWorld news | The Guardian · 14 Sep 2026Gulf states postpone strait of Hormuz talks with Iran as Yemen conflict intensifies
- Satellite imagery confirmed six fuel storage tanks were destroyed in Abha and damage occurred at a military site in Sharurah. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 14 Sep 2026Satellite images show damage to Saudi fuel depot, military site after Houthi attacks
- Oman postponed regional Strait of Hormuz discussions after Saudi Arabia requested a delay over escalating Houthi operations. © Vahid Salemi, AP · 14 Sep 2026Mideast live: Oman postpones Hormuz talks with Iran, regional countriesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Strait of Hormuz talks postponed due to Yemen events, says Iran
- Internationally recognized Yemeni government forces launched counter-offensives against Houthi positions in Taiz governorate supported by coalition airstrikes. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Yemen gov’t forces advance in Taiz as Houthis claim attack on Saudi ArabiaAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Why the Houthi advance towards Yemen’s Marib, Taiz matters
- Yemen's Human Rights Ministry reported 150 civilians killed and 85,000 displaced since September 3 due to expanding coastal combat. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 14 Sep 2026150 civilians killed by Houthi fire since Sept. 3, Yemeni government saysLatest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 13 Sep 2026Yemen: Houthi offensive triggers new displacement crisis
Cross-Border Air and Missile Operations
Ansar Allah launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting King Khalid Air Base in Khamis Mushait, while satellite imagery confirmed six fuel storage tanks were destroyed in Abha and military infrastructure was damaged in Sharurah. Earlier drone strikes targeting Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline forced its operational shutdown and drove Brent crude prices above $108 per barrel, prompting over 300 Saudi coalition airstrikes against Houthi military positions across Yemen. Anadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 14 Sep 2026Houthis claim large-scale missile, drone attack on King Khalid Air Base in Saudi ArabiaWorld news | The Guardian · 14 Sep 2026Oil prices rise after drone attacks shut down Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipelineAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 14 Sep 2026Satellite images show damage to Saudi fuel depot, military site after Houthi attacks
Strait Diplomacy and Gulf Security
Oman postponed scheduled regional negotiations in Muscat regarding management of the Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia requested a delay, citing Ansar Allah's naval blockade and coastal consolidation near Bab al-Mandeb. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan conducted coordination calls with Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan and European Union envoy Luigi Di Maio to address energy security and Gulf stability. © Vahid Salemi, AP · 14 Sep 2026Mideast live: Oman postpones Hormuz talks with Iran, regional countrieshttps://saudigazette.com.sa · 14 Sep 2026Saudi, UAE FMs discuss efforts to contain regional escalationAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Strait of Hormuz talks postponed due to Yemen events, says Iran
Red Sea Coast Combat and Civilian Toll
Internationally recognized Yemeni government forces initiated counter-offensives against Ansar Allah positions in western Taiz, repelling Houthi advances toward Marib and critical Red Sea transportation corridors. Expanding ground combat and air raids along the southwestern coast killed over 150 civilians and displaced 85,000 residents toward Aden and Djibouti. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 14 Sep 2026Yemen gov’t forces advance in Taiz as Houthis claim attack on Saudi ArabiaAnadolu Ajansı Güncel Haberler · 14 Sep 2026150 civilians killed by Houthi fire since Sept. 3, Yemeni government saysLatest news from the Middle East, daily international news reports - France 24 · 13 Sep 2026Yemen: Houthi offensive triggers new displacement crisis
Assessment
Expanding Houthi cross-border strikes against Saudi energy and military targets, paired with ongoing coastal combat and disrupted Gulf diplomacy, severely strain regional containment efforts and increase the likelihood of broader military confrontation.
- 2026-09-12
Drones launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, forcing its operational shutdown.
Unmanned aerial vehicles originating from Iraq's Maysan province hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, causing injuries and infrastructure damage. Saudi authorities suspended pipeline operations as a precaution while deferring military retaliation.
- 2026-09-11
Ansar Allah forces seize Mayun Island, expanding control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
Houthi fighters occupied Mayun Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait following the retreat of government-aligned forces. The positioning provides Ansar Allah with direct physical control over the southern Red Sea shipping corridor.
- 2026-09-10
Ansar Allah forces capture the strategic Red Sea port city of Mocha.
Ansar Allah fighters seized the port city of Mocha and advanced along Yemen's western coast, driving civilian displacement toward Aden and drawing heavy Saudi-led airstrikes.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Ansar Allah launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against Saudi energy facilities and southern cities.
Ansar Allah targeted Saudi Aramco oil installations, economic sites, and military bases across Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran with dozens of drones and ballistic missiles. The attacks injured 73 civilians and ignited operational fires at energy sites, prompting Saudi Arabia to announce military retaliation.
- 2026-09-06
Yemeni government forces recapture Hays district from Ansar Allah
Yemeni government troops recaptured Hays district following armed clashes that killed over 60 combatants.
- 2026-09-05
Yemeni government warplanes conduct airstrikes against Ansar Allah positions in Taiz and Hodeidah.
Yemeni government aircraft executed 15 airstrikes targeting Ansar Allah troop concentrations, vehicles, and combat positions in Hays, al-Kadha, and Maqbanah. The operations mark the first deployment of government airpower since coastal fighting escalated.
- 2026-09-02
Ansar Allah establishes military cooperation pact with al-Shabaab
Reports revealed structured cooperation between Ansar Allah and Somalia's al-Shabaab militia involving drone technology transfers and fighter training across the Gulf of Aden.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war in Yemen?
Not a declared war between states. The armed confrontation is between the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led coalition and the Yemeni government, and it reaches shipping in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait. Fighting has continued through repeated truces without a settlement. Legally a non-international armed conflict — the Houthis against Yemen's government — internationalized by Saudi and Emirati involvement. The index reads 78/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Saudi and Houthis situation right now?
The index reads 78/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Saudi and Houthis risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.