← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- An Israeli airstrike killed Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid in southern Gaza. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026IDF kills senior Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid in Gaza Strip strike
- An Israeli strike killed Hamas Jabaliya Battalion commander Ahmad Batash in northern Gaza. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026IDF kills senior Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid in Gaza Strip strikeJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026IDF kills Hamas battalion commander in northern Gaza strike
- A war-damaged building collapsed in Gaza City, killing at least 20 displaced Palestinians. World news | The Guardian · 16 Sep 2026At least 20 killed after Israeli-hit building in Gaza City collapsesBBC News · 16 Sep 2026At least 12 killed after war-damaged Gaza building collapsesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 16 Sep 2026Photos: Gaza building collapse kills 20, including women and children
- US Central Command Chief Admiral Brad Cooper convened a security summit in Germany with Israeli and Arab military commanders. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026US CENTCOM chief hosts rare military summit with Israel, Arab nations in Germany
- US officials met secretively with Houthi representatives in Muscat to discuss Red Sea shipping attacks. אבו עלי אקספרס · 16 Sep 2026Reuters: The Houthis informed senior American officials at a meeting in Oman that they do not intend to attack Israeli ships in the Red Sea.www.israelhayom.com · 16 Sep 2026US held secret Houthi talks in Oman as Saudis turned to Israel for help
Gaza Command Operations
Israeli airstrikes killed Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid in southern Gaza and Jabaliya Battalion commander Ahmad Batash in northern Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet targeted both commanders to prevent force reconstitution. A separate precision attack targeting an operative involved in the October 7 Nir Oz kidnappings was scaled back to minimize civilian casualties, leaving the target wounded. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026IDF kills senior Hamas Rafah Brigade commander Nael Abu Obeid in Gaza Strip strikeJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026IDF kills Hamas battalion commander in northern Gaza strikewww.israelhayom.com · 16 Sep 2026IDF's attempt to eliminate Bibas family kidnapper fails due to collateral damage concerns
Gaza Structural Collapse
A war-damaged apartment complex in the Tal al-Hawa district of Gaza City collapsed, killing at least 20 displaced residents and trapping dozens under concrete debris. Municipal civil defense units conducted rescue efforts without heavy machinery due to import restrictions at border crossings, leaving scores missing beneath structurally compromised buildings across the territory. World news | The Guardian · 16 Sep 2026At least 20 killed after Israeli-hit building in Gaza City collapsesBBC News · 16 Sep 2026At least 12 killed after war-damaged Gaza building collapsesAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 16 Sep 2026Photos: Gaza building collapse kills 20, including women and children
CENTCOM Multilateral Coordination
US Central Command Chief Admiral Brad Cooper convened a closed-door conference in Germany with military chiefs from Israel, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Admiral Cooper briefed regional leaders on US troop deployments and naval plans to protect shipping in the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian attacks. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 15 Sep 2026US CENTCOM chief hosts rare military summit with Israel, Arab nations in Germany
Red Sea Maritime Negotiations
US diplomats held secret talks with Houthi representatives at the US Embassy in Muscat, mediated by Omani officials. Houthi negotiators conveyed that the movement would refrain from attacking Israeli-linked commercial vessels navigating the Red Sea. אבו עלי אקספרס · 16 Sep 2026Reuters: The Houthis informed senior American officials at a meeting in Oman that they do not intend to attack Israeli ships in the Red Sea.www.israelhayom.com · 16 Sep 2026US held secret Houthi talks in Oman as Saudis turned to Israel for help
Southern Lebanon Border Oversight
The Lebanese Armed Forces expanded border control operations south of the Litani River alongside UNIFIL units under the Trilateral Framework. Israeli forces maintain static operational positions along the Blue Line while diplomatic discussions proceed regarding non-state weapon collection.
Assessment
Targeted strikes against Hamas command structures in Gaza and covert diplomatic talks in Oman operate alongside regional naval coordination, while structural civilian hazards and non-state arms remain critical security risks.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
4 more
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
- 2026-08-15
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people, targeting a Hezbollah commander.
On 15 August 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed 11 people and injured 19 following an attack that wounded three Israeli soldiers. Israel reported killing Hezbollah commander Ali Samir Al-Haj Hassan, marking the highest casualties since the June ceasefire.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 74.5/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 74.5/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.