← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- Taiwan's air force initiated flight testing of newly delivered US-made MQ-9B SeaGuardian reconnaissance drones from Hualien Air Base. News - South China Morning Post · 15 Sep 2026Taiwan tests US-made MQ-9B drones to counter PLA ‘grey-zone’ operations
- Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion. Taipei Times · 16 Sep 2026Okinawa vote likely to boost Japan’s defense buildup, Taiwan security: Scholars
- China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned Panama of consequences after Panamanian lawmakers created a parliamentary exchange group with Taiwan. News - South China Morning Post · 14 Sep 2026Beijing threatens ‘serious consequences’ after Panama lawmakers support Taiwan
- Tuvaluan Foreign Minister Paulson Panapa met President William Lai in Taipei to reaffirm diplomatic support for Taiwan's international representation. Taipei Times · 16 Sep 2026Taiwan deserves a ‘seat at the table,’ diplomat says
- European Union envoy Michael Gullner proposed expanding civil defense and disaster response cooperation with Taiwan during a conference in Taipei. Taipei Times · 15 Sep 2026More EU-Taiwan cooperation needed on disaster preparedness: EU envoy
Japanese Southwestern Defense Posture
Conservative candidate Genta Koja's victory over incumbent Denny Tamaki ended the twelve-year tenure of the anti-military administrative leadership in Okinawa, expediting Japanese Self-Defense Forces infrastructure deployments across the Ryukyu arc. Taipei Times · 16 Sep 2026Okinawa vote likely to boost Japan’s defense buildup, Taiwan security: Scholars
Long-Range Surveillance Capabilities
Taiwan's air force launched operational test flights of its first two US-supplied MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones from Hualien Air Base, establishing uncrewed maritime surveillance coverage aimed at tracking People's Liberation Army naval vessels and China Coast Guard formations. News - South China Morning Post · 15 Sep 2026Taiwan tests US-made MQ-9B drones to counter PLA ‘grey-zone’ operations
Panamanian Diplomatic Engagement
Beijing's Ministry of Foreign Affairs threatened Panama with commercial and political repercussions after National Assembly deputy Joan Guevara established a legislative exchange body with Taiwanese representatives. News - South China Morning Post · 14 Sep 2026Beijing threatens ‘serious consequences’ after Panama lawmakers support Taiwan
International Civil and Diplomatic Space
Tuvaluan Foreign Minister Paulson Panapa reaffirmed official ties with President William Lai in Taipei, while European Union envoy Michael Gullner publicly advocated integrating Taiwanese disaster preparedness capabilities into European resilience frameworks. Taipei Times · 16 Sep 2026Taiwan deserves a ‘seat at the table,’ diplomat saysTaipei Times · 15 Sep 2026More EU-Taiwan cooperation needed on disaster preparedness: EU envoy
Assessment
Incremental acquisitions of long-range intelligence assets and favorable Japanese regional election outcomes fortify island defense infrastructure without precipitating immediate military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait.
- 2026-09-16
Conservative Genta Koja wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
4 more
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21.5/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21.5/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.