← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Omani authorities rescued 23 crew members after an attack damaged the Panama-flagged oil tanker El Gaia off Musandam, leaving two sailors missing. BBC News · 15 Sep 2026Two sailors missing after tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Oman says
- Iranian military forces claimed the downing of three U.S. MQ-1 Predator drones over southeastern Iran and the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours. Tehran Times · 15 Sep 2026IRGC downs third intruding US drone in 24 hours over Strait of Hormuz
- Iranian state media reported that a U.S. drone strike hit two Iranian civilian fishing vessels near Larak Island in the Persian Gulf. Tehran Times · 15 Sep 2026US drone strike targets Iranian fishing boats in the Persian Gulf
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Beijing to urge renewed U.S.-Iran consultations on Strait of Hormuz navigation. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 16 Sep 2026China's top diplomat urges Iran, US to show restraint, revive talks
- U.S. government oversight reports detailed $38 billion in Iran war costs alongside severe guided-munitions inventory shortfalls and regional base damage. Defense One - All Content · 15 Sep 2026Iran strikes exposed gaps in medical evacuation ops across Middle East: IGBreaking Defense · 15 Sep 2026Iran war costs: $38B, plus $2-3B per month going forward, CBO saysWorld news | The Guardian · 15 Sep 2026Iran war cost US $38bn and significantly depleted missile stockpile, report finds
Hormuz Maritime Safety
Kinetic incidents in the Strait of Hormuz persisted with an attack on the Panama-flagged oil tanker El Gaia near the Musandam peninsula, leaving two crew members missing. Iranian state media claimed air defense units downed three U.S. MQ-1 Predator drones in 24 hours. Iranian state media also accused U.S. forces of striking two Iranian civilian fishing vessels near Larak Island. Tehran Times · 15 Sep 2026US drone strike targets Iranian fishing boats in the Persian GulfBBC News · 15 Sep 2026Two sailors missing after tanker attacked in Strait of Hormuz, Oman saysTehran Times · 15 Sep 2026IRGC downs third intruding US drone in 24 hours over Strait of Hormuz
Strategic Cost and Readiness Assessment
Newly released reports from the U.S. Department of Defense Inspector General and Congressional Budget Office documented $38 billion in expenditures for Operation Epic Fury, severe guided-munition shortfalls, and physical damage to U.S. facilities across eight Middle Eastern countries. Threat of Iranian missile and drone strikes forced U.S. forces in Iraq and Kuwait to replace helicopter medical evacuations with ground transport. Defense One - All Content · 15 Sep 2026Iran strikes exposed gaps in medical evacuation ops across Middle East: IGBreaking Defense · 15 Sep 2026Iran war costs: $38B, plus $2-3B per month going forward, CBO saysWorld news | The Guardian · 15 Sep 2026Iran war cost US $38bn and significantly depleted missile stockpile, report finds
Gulf Transit Diplomacy
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Beijing, calling for a return to the Islamabad memorandum and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei ruled out direct negotiations with Washington until pre-established conditions are met. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a war powers resolution seeking to halt unauthorized military action against Iran. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 16 Sep 2026China's top diplomat urges Iran, US to show restraint, revive talksWorld news | The Guardian · 16 Sep 2026House votes for a third time to end Iran war in symbolic move as conflict drags on – US politics liveTehran Times · 15 Sep 2026Iran rules out US talks until conditions are met
Internal Security and Foreign Relations
Iranian security personnel deployed across western Iranian cities during local shutdowns marking the fourth anniversary of Mahsa Amini's death. Sweden expelled an Iranian embassy employee over alleged Iranian threats targeting Jewish and Israeli interests in Sweden. Iran International · 16 Sep 2026Security forces deploy as shops in western Iran strike on Mahsa Amini anniversaryAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 16 Sep 2026Sweden expels Iran embassy employee over anti-Jewish threats
Assessment
Persistent kinetic strikes against commercial shipping and military drones in the Strait of Hormuz indicate that operational hazards remain acute across the theater.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
4 more
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 76.5/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 76.5/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.