← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- An Israeli airstrike hit a vehicle on the coastal road in Khan Yunis, killing at least one person and wounding three. אבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza Strip
- Lebanese sources reported that Israeli forces carried out a controlled explosion near the southern border town of Khiam. News from Israel · 22 Sep 2026Report: IDF carries out controlled explosion in southern Lebanon
- Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that the IDF will evacuate Gaza City if Hamas captures any Israeli personnel. Haaretz latest headlines · 22 Sep 2026Defense Minister: Gaza City will be evacuated if another Israeli is abductedNews from Israel · 22 Sep 2026Defense Minister: 'If even one Israeli is captured, Gaza City will be emptied'
- Israeli security forces tightened closures around Ramallah following settler vandalism and clashes across the central West Bank. Haaretz latest headlines · 22 Sep 2026Palestinian reports: Settler attacks across West Bank; IDF tightens Ramallah closure
- French President Emmanuel Macron drew diplomatic rebukes from Israeli officials over United Nations General Assembly statements regarding Hamas in the West Bank. אבו עלי אקספרס · 22 Sep 2026President Macron: Hamas has never operated in the West BankJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026Macron's Hamas comments at UN were translation 'misinterpretation,' French source tells 'Post'
Gaza Operations and Demarcation
An Israeli strike on a vehicle in the Mawasi coastal area of Khan Yunis killed at least one person and wounded three. Defense Minister Israel Katz reiterated that Israeli forces will not withdraw from the Yellow Line demarcation until the enclave is demilitarized, warning that any capture of Israeli personnel would prompt an evacuation order for Gaza City. אבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Sep 2026Strike in the Gaza StripHaaretz latest headlines · 22 Sep 2026Defense Minister: Gaza City will be evacuated if another Israeli is abductedNews from Israel · 22 Sep 2026Defense Minister: 'If even one Israeli is captured, Gaza City will be emptied'
Southern Lebanon Engineering Action
Lebanese media reported that Israeli troops conducted a large controlled explosion near the border town of Khiam in southern Lebanon. Israeli defense officials cited ongoing daily reconnaissance and precision targeting against Hezbollah infrastructure to prevent rearmament south of the Litani River. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026Israeli security officials fear possible regional escalation amid Iran, Houthis, West Bank tensionsNews from Israel · 22 Sep 2026Report: IDF carries out controlled explosion in southern Lebanon
West Bank Friction and Diplomatic Disputes
Israeli security forces enforced strict movement restrictions around Ramallah after settler attacks damaged civilian property across central West Bank villages. Concurrently, French President Emmanuel Macron's address at the United Nations General Assembly prompted sharp criticism from Israeli ministers over his characterization of Hamas governance in the West Bank. Haaretz latest headlines · 22 Sep 2026Palestinian reports: Settler attacks across West Bank; IDF tightens Ramallah closureאבו עלי אקספרס · 22 Sep 2026President Macron: Hamas has never operated in the West BankJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026Macron's Hamas comments at UN were translation 'misinterpretation,' French source tells 'Post'
Assessment
Precision strikes in southern Gaza, localized IDF engineering actions in Lebanon, and explicit evacuation warnings over demarcation boundaries maintain high operational tension across both fronts.
- 2026-09-24
Israel reduces ground forces in southern Lebanon to six brigades
The Israel Defense Forces reduced active ground formations deployed in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
4 more
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 72.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 72.7/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.