← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to challenge United States arms sales to Taiwan during an upcoming Washington summit with President Donald Trump. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Xi expected to raise Taiwan during Trump-Xi summit: U.S. scholars
- The United States requested Taiwanese officials curtail visits to Washington think tanks while a 14 billion dollar arms package remains pending approval. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan’s opposition casts doubt on ‘rock solid’ US ties ahead of Xi-Trump summit
- Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration launched Hsiung Feng III supersonic and Hsiung Feng II subsonic anti-ship missiles during joint defense maneuvers. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan coastguard’s rare missile firing reveals deepening links with navy
- A People's Liberation Army drone conducted reconnaissance off Taitung County while Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te inspected precision-strike drills in Pingtung County. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources say
- China's Communist Party Politburo expelled former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia and former Joint Staff chief Liu Zhenli over disloyalty charges. News - South China Morning Post · 23 Sep 2026PLA chiefs’ downfall eliminated ‘political danger’, military mouthpiece saysNews - South China Morning Post · 21 Sep 2026Former top PLA generals expelled from Communist Party for factionalism and disloyalty
Bilateral Summit Maneuvering
Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to press United States President Donald Trump on pending weapons transfers to Taiwan during their Washington summit, arguing arms sales violate the 1982 Joint Communiqué. Trump administration officials requested visiting Taiwanese officials curtail engagements with Washington research institutions to prevent friction before bilateral discussions. A 14 billion dollar United States arms package for Taiwan remains awaiting executive approval. Taipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Xi expected to raise Taiwan during Trump-Xi summit: U.S. scholarsNews - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan’s opposition casts doubt on ‘rock solid’ US ties ahead of Xi-Trump summit
Cross-Strait Military Preparations
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration integrated with the Republic of China Navy to fire Hsiung Feng III supersonic and Hsiung Feng II subsonic anti-ship missiles during joint live-fire maneuvers. A People's Liberation Army drone conducted surveillance off Taitung County during Taiwanese precision-strike exercises attended by President Lai Ching-te in Pingtung County. Separately, Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration transferred a decommissioned 500-tonne Kinmen-class patrol craft to the Philippine Coast Guard. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Taiwan coastguard’s rare missile firing reveals deepening links with navyTaipei Times · 23 Sep 2026Taiwan donates patrol vessel to the Philippines, sources say
PLA Political Reorganization
The Chinese Communist Party Politburo expelled former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Zhang Youxia and former Joint Staff Department chief Liu Zhenli from the party and military on charges of factionalism and disloyalty. The official People's Liberation Army Daily stated the removals eliminated hidden political dangers within the top military leadership. Chinese military medical researchers simultaneously published studies analyzing complex drone-inflicted trauma data gathered from the Ukraine conflict. News - South China Morning Post · 22 Sep 2026Learning from Ukraine war, Chinese military doctors target injuries from dronesNews - South China Morning Post · 23 Sep 2026PLA chiefs’ downfall eliminated ‘political danger’, military mouthpiece saysNews - South China Morning Post · 21 Sep 2026Former top PLA generals expelled from Communist Party for factionalism and disloyalty
Assessment
Cross-strait friction remains centered on political posturing and weapons transfers ahead of high-level United States-China talks, without indicators of imminent force concentration or conflict.
- 2026-09-22
Taiwan transfers decommissioned coast guard vessel to the Philippines
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration transferred a decommissioned 500-tonne patrol vessel to the Philippine Coast Guard.
- 2026-09-21
Royal New Zealand Navy vessels transit the Taiwan Strait
Royal New Zealand Navy frigate HMNZS Te Mana and replenishment tanker HMNZS Aotearoa transited the Taiwan Strait.
- 2026-09-16
Conservative Genta Koja wins Okinawa gubernatorial election
Conservative candidate Genta Koja defeated incumbent Denny Tamaki in Okinawa's gubernatorial election, ending twelve years of opposition to Japanese defense expansion.
4 more
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21.2/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.