← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours at the United Nations in New York. World news | The Guardian · 22 Sep 2026Iran and US have held talks on sidelines of UN summit, says Donald TrumpAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026Iran submits conditions for reopening of Hormuz to U.S. representative, state media saysAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 22 Sep 2026US, Iran hold ‘very good’ talks, Trump says at UN meeting
- Iranian officials offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States lifts its naval blockade. World news | The Guardian · 22 Sep 2026Iran and US have held talks on sidelines of UN summit, says Donald TrumpIran International · 22 Sep 2026Iran offers to reopen Hormuz within seven days if US lifts Hormuz blockadeAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026Iran ready to reopen Strait of Hormuz if US eases military pressure and lifts blockade
- Airlines cancelled flights connecting Tehran to Baghdad ahead of new United States secondary aviation sanctions taking effect September 23. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 22 Sep 2026Iran flights to Baghdad, Muscat cancelled ahead of US aviation sanctionsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026Turkish carriers halt Iran flights as US sanctions bite: Who could follow?
- France began drafting a United Nations Security Council resolution to establish an international maritime protection mission in the Strait of Hormuz. AL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026France mulls new UN Security Council resolution on Hormuz, diplomats say
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi characterized diplomatic talks with the United States as another scene of war. Tehran Times · 22 Sep 2026IRGC: Talks are another battlefield as Iran reveals new weapon test
UN General Assembly Diplomacy
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner for three hours in New York. U.S. President Donald Trump cited momentum toward a settlement but warned he could annihilate Iran if talks fail. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian authorized the Iranian delegation to conduct negotiations without holding direct leader-level meetings with Trump. World news | The Guardian · 22 Sep 2026Iran and US have held talks on sidelines of UN summit, says Donald TrumpAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026Trump threatens Iran with 'hell' but reveals fresh talksAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 22 Sep 2026US, Iran hold ‘very good’ talks, Trump says at UN meeting
Strait of Hormuz Navigation
Iran offered to reopen commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the United States lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. French diplomats began drafting a United Nations Security Council resolution to establish an international maritime mission in the waterway. Iranian state media reiterated demands for the release of frozen financial assets alongside an end to U.S. military pressure. World news | The Guardian · 22 Sep 2026Iran and US have held talks on sidelines of UN summit, says Donald TrumpAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026Iran submits conditions for reopening of Hormuz to U.S. representative, state media saysAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026France mulls new UN Security Council resolution on Hormuz, diplomats say
Aviation Sanctions and Defense Posture
Iranian airlines cancelled flights from Tehran to Baghdad and Muscat prior to September 23 U.S. Treasury secondary sanctions. Turkish carriers also suspended flights serving Iranian destinations. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi described diplomatic negotiations as another battlefield and stated that Iranian forces maintain readiness for renewed military combat. Tehran Times · 22 Sep 2026IRGC: Talks are another battlefield as Iran reveals new weapon testAl Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 22 Sep 2026Iran flights to Baghdad, Muscat cancelled ahead of US aviation sanctionsAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 22 Sep 2026Turkish carriers halt Iran flights as US sanctions bite: Who could follow?
Assessment
Parallel diplomatic exchanges at the United Nations and expanding maritime and aviation restrictions leave the theater at a critical threshold between potential de-escalation and renewed major strikes.
- 2026-09-23
Iranian foreign minister meets US special envoy at United Nations
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff for three hours of talks at the United Nations in New York.
- 2026-09-18
Russia and China veto UN resolution extending Iran sanctions monitoring
Russia and China vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution to extend independent monitoring of international sanctions on Iran.
- 2026-09-12
Drone strike from Iraq shuts down Saudi East-West pipeline
Unmanned aerial vehicles launched from Iraq struck Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, forcing a temporary shutdown of the crude oil conduit.
4 more
- 2026-09-10
IAEA Board of Governors reports Iran to UN Security Council for non-compliance.
The 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution referring Iran to the UN Security Council for non-proliferation non-compliance for the first time in 20 years. The action follows over a year of denied IAEA inspector access to Iranian nuclear installations.
- 2026-09-09
U.S. forces destroy five Iranian oil tankers following IRGC missile attacks on warships
U.S. Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers near Kharg Island and in the Gulf of Oman after IRGC forces launched ballistic missiles at a U.S. Navy warship. Iranian forces retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
- 2026-09-08
Houthi missile strikes target southern Saudi oil facilities, wounding 73
Yemeni Houthi forces launched missile strikes targeting oil facilities across southern Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people.
- 2026-08-31
U.S. and Iranian forces resumed direct strike exchanges following a month-long lull.
U.S. forces struck Iranian launcher positions on Larak Island to prevent sea-mine operations, triggering Iranian retaliatory drone and missile strikes targeting U.S. base locations in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 69.2/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 69.2/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.