← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Gaza War & Israel – Hezbollah Conflict
Israel – Hezbollah, Hamas war
- An Israeli airstrike killed Hamas finance department chief Muhammad Abu Alwan in Khan Yunis. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026Israel kills Hamas finance chief in airstrike on Gaza's Khan Yunis, Katz says
- Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck sites in the southern Lebanese towns of al-Qantara, Khiam, and Kfar Raman. אבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a short time ago in al-Qantara, Khiam, and Kfar Raman.
- The Israel Defense Forces reduced active ground formations deployed in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 24 Sep 2026IDF reduces amount of forces in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six
- A driver rammed a police vehicle at the Maccabim checkpoint on Highway 443, severely injuring an Israeli soldier. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026IDF soldier seriously wounded in car-ramming attack on Highway 443, terrorist killed
- Hamas declared readiness to implement the Board of Peace roadmap facilitating international force deployment in Gaza. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 24 Sep 2026Hamas 'ready' to move forward with Board of Peace ceasefire roadmap for Gaza, terror group says
Gaza Financial Targeting
Israeli airstrikes targeted financial operators in the Gaza Strip. An Israeli strike in Khan Yunis killed Hamas finance department chief Muhammad Abu Alwan. A separate strike in Deir al-Balah killed money exchanger Jaber Kamal Makbal, followed by another strike on a vehicle in Sheikh Ajlin. Four Palestinians were wounded near the Haifa school in Khan Yunis during an Israeli strike. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem stated the group is prepared to implement the Board of Peace roadmap and permit a technocrat committee into Gaza. אבו עלי אקספרס · 24 Sep 20264 wounded, including one in serious condition, in the Israeli strike a short time ago in central Khan Yunis in the south of the Strip (near the “Haifa” school).אבו עלי אקספרס · 24 Sep 2026In the strike on the Hyundai jeep☝️ in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip a short while ago, the terrorist (in a suit) Jaber Kamal Makbal was eliminated.JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 24 Sep 2026Hamas 'ready' to move forward with Board of Peace ceasefire roadmap for Gaza, terror group says
Southern Lebanon Force Realignment
Israeli Air Force jets struck positions in al-Qantara, Khiam, and Kfar Raman. The Israel Defense Forces reduced active troop presence in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six. The military withdrew the Golani Brigade, Commando Brigade, 55th Paratrooper Reservist Brigade, and 4th Armored Reservist Brigade. The 188th Armored Brigade and Ground Forces Training School Brigade entered southern Lebanon as replacements. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 24 Sep 2026IDF reduces amount of forces in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to sixאבו עלי אקספרס · 23 Sep 2026Southern Lebanon: Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a short time ago in al-Qantara, Khiam, and Kfar Raman.
West Bank Checkpoint Attack
A driver rammed a police patrol vehicle at the Maccabim checkpoint on Highway 443, critically injuring Israeli soldier Neria Leiter. Israeli forces at the checkpoint shot and killed the driver. The Israel Defense Forces assigned the 98th Division Headquarters to operate across the West Bank. JPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 24 Sep 2026Israeli envoy to US's son fighting for life in hospital after car-ramming attack, Leiter saysJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026IDF soldier seriously wounded in car-ramming attack on Highway 443, terrorist killedJPost.com - The Jerusalem Post - All News from the Middle East, Israel, and the Jewish World · 23 Sep 2026IDF announces rotation of forces in Syria, West Bank regions amid High Holy Days, terror attacks
Assessment
Israeli force redeployments in southern Lebanon and targeted strikes against Hamas financial networks in Gaza reflect focused containment efforts alongside persistent low-intensity perimeter combat.
- 2026-09-24
Israel reduces ground forces in southern Lebanon to six brigades
The Israel Defense Forces reduced active ground formations deployed in southern Lebanon from eight brigades to six.
- 2026-09-15
Israel establishes kill zone along southern Lebanon front
The Israeli Northern Command established a kill zone separating Israeli-controlled territory from Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon.
- 2026-09-11
Israeli forces detonate 1,000 tonnes of explosives at Ali al-Taher ridge
The Israeli military detonated over 1,000 tonnes of explosives to destroy underground Hezbollah tunnel infrastructure beneath the Ali al-Taher Ridge.
4 more
- 2026-09-04
Israeli military captures strategic Ali al-Taher ridge in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military captured the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge following Iranian warnings of direct retaliation.
- 2026-09-01
Israeli special forces capture Hamas internal security chief in Gaza City
Israeli special forces arrested Hamas internal security chief Mouin al-Arabid during an operational raid in Gaza City.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli military strikes commercial targets in central Beirut
Israeli military forces launched strikes against commercial locations in central Beirut.
- 2026-08-21
Israeli airstrike kills 12 medical workers in Bint Jbeil, Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike killed 12 medical workers in the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Israel at war?
Yes. Israel is formally at war, fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah across the Lebanese border. It is a war between a state and armed movements rather than between two states. In the worldwide legal classification this registers as several strands at once: military occupation of Palestinian territory and armed conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. The index reads 72.7/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas situation right now?
The index reads 72.7/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Israel and Hezbollah, Hamas risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.