← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian forces struck Kyiv and Ukrainian regional infrastructure with ballistic missiles and 282 drones, killing at least 16 people. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 23 Sep 2026Russian ballistic missile attack against Kyiv kills 1, injures 2 after day of drone strikesThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 24 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 16, injure 59 across Ukraine as Kyiv hit by waves of drones, ballistic missiles
- A Russian missile strike hit an agricultural storage warehouse in Stara Hnylytsia, killing six farm workers. Ukrainska Pravda · 24 Sep 2026Russian forces strike farm in Kharkiv Oblast with Banderol drone missile: six killed, 12 injured – photosKyiv Post · 24 Sep 2026‘They Were Sorting Vegetables’: Russian Attack Kills 6 Workers in Kharkiv Oblast
- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone preparation facility in occupied Donetsk alongside two early-warning radar stations in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Ukrinform · 24 Sep 2026Ukrainian Defense Forces strike two Russian radars, drone launch site
- Poland temporarily evacuated two border crossings with Ukraine following Russian aerial attacks near the frontier. Kyiv Post · 24 Sep 2026Poland Evacuates Two Border Crossings as Russian Attacks Hit Western Ukraine
- Suspected Russian strike drones crashed in Moldova and Romania during deep-strike operations across western Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 24 Sep 2026Suspected Russian drones crash in Romania, Moldova
Long-Range Aerial Bombardment
Russian forces conducted concentrated overnight ballistic missile and drone barrages against Kyiv and eight Ukrainian oblasts, employing Iskander-M, KN-23, and cruise systems alongside 282 attack drones. Strike patterns demonstrated distinct target asymmetry: Russian salvos hit residential districts, an agricultural enterprise in Stara Hnylytsia, and areas adjacent to a Kyiv maternity hospital and rail infrastructure. Ukrainian defenses claimed interceptions of 60 percent of incoming ballistic missiles, but depleted interceptor stockpiles allowed significant munitions to breach terminal defenses in urban centers. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 23 Sep 2026Russian ballistic missile attack against Kyiv kills 1, injures 2 after day of drone strikesThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 24 Sep 2026Russian attacks kill at least 16, injure 59 across Ukraine as Kyiv hit by waves of drones, ballistic missilesKyiv Post · 24 Sep 2026Zelensky: Ukraine Intercepted 60% of Ballistic Missiles in Overnight Russian Attack
Ukrainian Counter-Battery Strikes
Ukrainian forces targeted Russian combat support systems inside occupied territory to suppress aerial launch capacity. General Staff operations struck an attack-drone storage and launch compound in occupied Donetsk, mobile 35N6 Kasta and P-18 aerial surveillance radars in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and a military fuel depot in Velyka Bilozerka. These operations focused on degrading Russian low-altitude airspace surveillance and preventing launch sequences closer to the contact line. Ukrinform · 24 Sep 2026Ukrainian Defense Forces strike two Russian radars, drone launch site
Cross-Border Spillover
Russian drone operations in western Ukrainian oblasts forced operational disruption along NATO and non-NATO borders. Poland temporarily cleared and evacuated staff from two border crossings during aerial strikes on border transport infrastructure. Simultaneously, Russian-origin drones crashed in Moldova's Floresti district and near Solca in Romania's Suceava County, prompting formal diplomatic protests from Bucharest. Kyiv Post · 24 Sep 2026Poland Evacuates Two Border Crossings as Russian Attacks Hit Western UkraineThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 24 Sep 2026Suspected Russian drones crash in Romania, Moldova
Diplomatic Contacts in New York
Diplomatic positioning accelerated around the United Nations General Assembly in New York. A coalition of 51 nations issued a joint declaration demanding an immediate Russian withdrawal and ceasefire, while Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev arrived in the United States for scheduled discussions with American intermediaries Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner regarding terms for potential future negotiations. Kyiv Post · 24 Sep 2026Russian Envoy Dmitriev Heads to US for Talks With Witkoff, KushnerKyiv Post · 23 Sep 202651 Countries Issue Joint UN Statement Urging Russia to Accept Immediate Ceasefire as Sybiha Condemns Latest Strikes
Assessment
Sustained Russian ballistic strikes on Ukrainian civilian population centers and Ukrainian precision interdiction against Russian military launch assets indicate that neither belligerent is scaling back operational tempo ahead of exploratory diplomatic contacts.
- 2026-09-22
US President Donald Trump meets Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York
United States President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York to discuss peace negotiations and air defense manufacturing.
- 2026-09-21
Ukraine debuts Pelican ballistic missile in strikes on Russian facilities
Ukrainian long-range strikes deployed the new Pelican ballistic missile against industrial and oil refining facilities in Russia's Moscow and Voronezh regions.
- 2026-09-16
Ukrainian drone strike kills Russian Major General Anton Grunis
A Ukrainian drone strike killed Russian Major General Anton Grunis in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
4 more
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 96.1/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 96.1/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.