← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian officials submitted updated peace proposals to United States envoys aimed at establishing terms to end the war with Russia.
- Russian missile and drone strikes killed at least 12 civilians across Ukraine, hitting defense industry and civilian infrastructure sites.
- Ukraine reportedly halted drone strikes targeting Russian oil tankers near Baltic ports following a specific request from United States officials.
- Ukrainian deep strikes targeted energy infrastructure in Russian-occupied Crimea, triggering widespread blackouts across parts of the peninsula.
- Humanitarian monitoring sources reported that July 2026 was the deadliest month for Ukrainian civilians since early 2022.
Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine remains in a state of high-intensity, attritional combat across multiple operational axes. Russian forces continue localized ground offensives in eastern Ukraine while conducting heavy long-range missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities and key infrastructure. Ukrainian forces maintain active territorial defense while employing targeted deep strikes against energy, logistical, and military assets in occupied territory and within Russian borders.
Operational developments during this reporting window were dominated by renewed Russian long-range aerial attacks that killed at least 12 civilians and damaged infrastructure across several Ukrainian regions. In response, Ukrainian deep-strike operations targeted energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea, resulting in significant electrical power outages. Additionally, reporting indicated that Kyiv paused drone strikes against Russian oil tankers operating near Baltic Sea transit routes following consultations with United States representatives.
On the diplomatic front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv delivered structured negotiation proposals to US envoys to advance efforts toward ending the conflict. These proposals build on previous trilateral and multilateral discussions held in international venues. In a separate humanitarian exchange, Russian authorities released former US Marine Joseph Gilman, who had been imprisoned in Russia since 2022.
The broader strategic environment is defined by severe civilian harm and ongoing economic friction from long-range campaign tactics. Human rights monitoring confirmed that civilian casualties reached multi-year monthly highs during July, reflecting the intensified use of heavy aerial munitions against urban areas. At the same time, earlier Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have disrupted domestic fuel supply chains, forcing Moscow to adjust energy management and fuel sourcing.
The overall military balance remains anchored in sustained attritional warfare without a verified comprehensive ceasefire or political settlement in force. Assessment: High-intensity combat and mutual strategic strike campaigns will persist as diplomatic envoys evaluate submitted proposals.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
3 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine submits new peace proposals to US envoys as Russian strikes continue across Ukraine.
- 2026-08-11
Reciprocal long-range missile and drone strikes inflict casualties and hit energy and military targets.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are Russia and Ukraine at war?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 95/100 as of 1 January 1970 (war), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 95/100 — war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
This run predates the split into war and war-risk indices; its number was a single tension score and is labelled as what it was then.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.