← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- The U.S. Navy conducted a live-fire trial hitting a target with a land-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System designated for Taiwan. Naval News · 28 Aug 2026Taiwan-Bound Harpoon Coastal Defense System Scores Direct Hit in US Navy Test
- China's National People's Congress Standing Committee formally removed General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 29 Aug 2026China removes high-ranking officers from key military bodyNews - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026China strips former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of top military positions
- Taiwanese forces stationed in the Penghu archipelago executed defensive readiness drills targeting potential Chinese amphibious invasion fleets. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 28 Aug 2026On islands key to Taiwan’s defense, troops prepare for a Chinese first strike
- Defense planners in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States incorporated climate risks and extreme weather scenarios into military readiness evaluations. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026How typhoons and extreme weather could undermine Taiwan Strait combat readiness
- Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry reported bilateral trade with Taiwan reached S$170.3 billion in 2025, making Taiwan its largest trading partner. The Diplomat · 26 Aug 2026How Taiwan Became Singapore’s Largest Trading Partner
Central Military Commission Purge
China's Standing Committee of the National People's Congress formally stripped former Central Military Commission Vice-Chairman General Zhang Youxia and Joint Staff Chief General Liu Zhenli of their posts following internal investigations. The official removals leave President Xi Jinping with two remaining members on the military command body while confirming ongoing discipline enforcement within the People's Liberation Army. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 29 Aug 2026China removes high-ranking officers from key military bodyNews - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026China strips former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of top military positions
U.S. Arms Integration
The U.S. Navy successfully test-fired a land-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System intended for delivery to Taiwan's military. The operational validation of the mobile anti-ship missile system strengthens Taiwan's anti-surface warfare capabilities prior to scheduled weapon transfers. Naval News · 28 Aug 2026Taiwan-Bound Harpoon Coastal Defense System Scores Direct Hit in US Navy Test
Island Defense and Environmental Contingencies
Taiwanese forces deployed across the Penghu archipelago maintain active defensive posture drills to shield Taiwan's main island from potential maritime blockades or amphibious landings. Defense planners in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States are simultaneously integrating extreme weather and typhoon disruptions into military infrastructure resilience and operational readiness planning. Latest articles - The Japan Times · 28 Aug 2026On islands key to Taiwan’s defense, troops prepare for a Chinese first strikeNews - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026How typhoons and extreme weather could undermine Taiwan Strait combat readiness
Semiconductor Trade Diversification
Bilateral trade between Singapore and Taiwan reached S$170.3 billion in 2025, driven by expanding global demand for artificial intelligence hardware and advanced microelectronics. The trade volume established Taiwan as Singapore's largest merchandise trading partner, while the European Union continues expanding commercial ties with Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturers to secure technology supply chains. The Diplomat · 26 Aug 2026How Taiwan Became Singapore’s Largest Trading PartnerThe Diplomat · 25 Aug 2026Taiwan: A Growing Economic Partner for the EU in Troubled Times
Assessment
High-level Chinese military restructuring, accelerated U.S. weapon systems testing for Taiwan, and fortified Taiwanese island defenses reflect sustained cross-Strait strategic competition without indicators of imminent armed conflict.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
2 more
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.