← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Russian drone strikes hit a Ukrainian military ammunition depot in Myla, Kyiv Oblast, causing detonations that killed at least 37 people. World news | The Guardian · 29 Aug 2026Russian drone strike on Kyiv warehouse storing weapons kills at least 37The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 29 Aug 2026At least 37 killed after Russian drone strike triggers major explosion near KyivUkrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Zelenskyy on explosions near Kyiv: military warehouses hit, causing munitions and drones to detonate
- Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 233 of 267 Russian missiles and drones launched in an aerial assault targeting Ukraine. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 29 Aug 2026Ukraine says it downed more than 200 drones as rare days-long air raid alerts stretch into third morningUkrinform · 29 Aug 2026ADF neutralizes 233 Russian drones used to attack Ukraine overnight
- Ukrainian forces struck Russian drone storage facilities in occupied Donetsk and Hvardiiske, Crimea. Kyiv Post · 29 Aug 2026Ukraine Strikes Drone Launch Sites in Crimea, DonetskUkrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Ukraine's General Staff reports destruction of Russian Buk-M3 system, strikes on drone launch site
- Ukrainian long-range drones hit commercial logistics facilities in Rostov-on-Don and Aksay in Russia's Rostov Oblast. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 29 Aug 2026Ukrainian forces reportedly strike Russian retail warehouse in Rostov Oblast
- Ukrainian official Pavlo Palisa reported Russian command instructions to plan prospective offensive options toward Kyiv. Ukrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Putin orders military to plan for offensive towards Kyiv and Chernihiv
Myla Ammunition Depot Strike
Detonations from a Russian drone strike on a military storage facility in Myla damaged 50 nearby residential buildings and an elderly care facility, prompting Ukrainian internal investigations into municipal ammunition storage safety. World news | The Guardian · 29 Aug 2026Russian drone strike on Kyiv warehouse storing weapons kills at least 37Ukrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Zelenskyy on explosions near Kyiv: military warehouses hit, causing munitions and drones to detonateMeduza.io · 29 Aug 2026At least 37 killed after Russian strike hits an ammunition depot near Kyiv, triggering massive explosions. Many of the victims were residents of a nearby care home.
Mass Drone Assaults
Russian forces launched over 200 jet-powered Shahed and decoy drones per day against Ukrainian urban centers, increasing pressure on Ukrainian air defense interceptor reserves while inflicting casualties across Kyiv, Odesa, and Kherson. Ukrinform · 29 Aug 2026Russian forces attack Kherson with drones: One killed, two injuredKyiv Post · 29 Aug 2026Russian Drone Strike Kills One, Destroys Grain Trucks in Odesa RegionUkrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Russia attacked Ukraine with 224 drones during the day, mostly targeting Kyiv
Deep Interdiction Strikes
Ukrainian forces targeted Russian unmanned aerial vehicle launch infrastructure in Donetsk and occupied Crimea while using long-range strike drones to disrupt logistics hubs in Rostov Oblast and hit air defense assets in Bryansk Oblast. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 29 Aug 2026Ukrainian forces reportedly strike Russian retail warehouse in Rostov OblastKyiv Post · 29 Aug 2026Ukraine Strikes Drone Launch Sites in Crimea, DonetskUkrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Ukraine's General Staff reports destruction of Russian Buk-M3 system, strikes on drone launch site
Northern Strategic Threat
Ukrainian intelligence confirmed Russian military planning directives for potential future operational axes toward Kyiv and Chernihiv, though Ukrainian defense officials observed no current buildup of offensive force concentrations along the northern border. Ukrainska Pravda · 29 Aug 2026Putin orders military to plan for offensive towards Kyiv and Chernihiv
Assessment
High-intensity conflict continues with dense Russian drone barrages against Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure set against deep Ukrainian counter-strikes on Russian supply hubs and launch sites.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine launches long-range missile and drone strike on Russia's Novorossiysk naval base.
Ukrainian forces reportedly used Neptune missiles and Palianytsia drones to strike Russia's key Black Sea naval base in Novorossiysk, over 300 kilometers behind the front line. The attack reportedly caused casualties, while Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eight civilians.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 94/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 94/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.