← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged U.S. maritime blockade enforcement reduced Iran's foreign trade volume by nearly 35 percent. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 29 Aug 2026Iran’s leaders acknowledge economic toll of war, pledge diplomacy, defenceAL-MONITOR: The Pulse of The Middle East · 28 Aug 2026War weighs on Iran's economy as US intensifies sanctions
- The U.S. Treasury Department severed UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr from the U.S. financial system over alleged Iranian transactions. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026US targets Egyptian bank in first strike of economic war against IranIran International · 28 Aug 2026Iran or the dollar? US makes an example of Banque Misr
- Iraqi National Security Advisor Qasim al-Araji stated the September 30 deadline applies to U.S.-led coalition withdrawal rather than disarming Iranian-backed militias. FDD's Long War Journal · 28 Aug 2026Iranian-backed Iraqi militias may seek to delay disarmament
- Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi rejected claims that Field Marshal Asim Munir carried a U.S. message to Tehran. Tehran Times · 29 Aug 2026Pakistan calls claims army chief recently visited Iran as Trump envoy ‘factually incorrect’
- Somali pirates hijacked two commercial cargo ships in the Gulf of Aden. BBC News · 28 Aug 2026Somali piracy surges as the impact of the US-Iran war ripples outwards
Third-Country Banking Sanctions
Washington's Operation Economic Outcast expanded targeting of third-country financial institutions handling Iranian capital, focusing enforcement on commercial hubs in Dubai, Istanbul, and Baghdad to shut down Tehran's access to foreign currency reserves. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026US targets Egyptian bank in first strike of economic war against IranIran International · 29 Aug 2026Washington’s economic war on Iran starts in Dubai, not BeijingIran International · 28 Aug 2026Iran or the dollar? US makes an example of Banque Misr
Pakistani Regional Mediation
Islamabad clarified its diplomatic posture regarding talks between Washington and Tehran, confirming that Pakistani officials are acting independently to facilitate dialogue around the June interim framework rather than acting as direct emissaries for the White House. Tehran Times · 29 Aug 2026Pakistan calls claims army chief recently visited Iran as Trump envoy ‘factually incorrect’
Gulf Maritime Infrastructure Bypass
Persian Gulf states accelerated long-term infrastructure allocations toward overland pipeline links, rail routes, and non-Strait port capacity to mitigate economic vulnerabilities caused by the ongoing maritime blockade of Iranian waters. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026Persian Gulf states pour billions into routes bypassing Hormuz
Iranian Economic Resilience Stance
Tehran acknowledged severe domestic economic strains—including fuel shortages and a one-third contraction in foreign trade—while political figures such as Mohsen Rezaei outlined rigid terms for potential negotiations, signalling that hardline political consolidation in Iran prevents near-term economic concessions. understandingwar.org · 28 Aug 2026Iran Update August 27 2026Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 29 Aug 2026Iran’s leaders acknowledge economic toll of war, pledge diplomacy, defenceIran International · 28 Aug 2026War or deal? Rezaei begins to define Iran’s price
Assessment
Sustained U.S. financial sanctions and naval blockade operations preserve acute economic pressure on Tehran, while diplomatic channels remain active but locked over fundamental conditions for resuming negotiations.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.