← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
- The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress formally removed General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026China strips former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of top military positions
- The U.S. Navy conducted a live-fire test hitting a target with a Taiwan-bound land-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System missile. Naval News · 28 Aug 2026Taiwan-Bound Harpoon Coastal Defense System Scores Direct Hit in US Navy Test
- Taiwanese defense researcher Chen Chia-sheng reported that the People's Liberation Army is prioritizing systems destruction warfare over individual weapons platforms. News - South China Morning Post · 30 Aug 2026PLA shift to systems warfare means Taiwan’s defences need to change: experts
- Taiwanese defense planners folded extreme weather scenarios into national mobilization and emergency resilience plans. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026How typhoons and extreme weather could undermine Taiwan Strait combat readiness
- The Taiwanese government pursued debt recovery claims against St. Vincent and the Grenadines following diplomatic shifts in the Caribbean. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026Taipei’s debt hardball carries a clear warning for its remaining allies
Central Military Commission Purge
The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress formally removed General Zhang Youxia and General Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission following internal discipline investigations. The removals leave President Xi Jinping with two active members on China's top military command body alongside former General Office director Zhong Shaojun and Strategic Support Force commander Ju Qiansheng. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026China strips former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli of top military positions
U.S. Arms Integration
The U.S. Navy completed a live-fire test of the land-based Harpoon Coastal Defense System ahead of scheduled delivery to Taiwan's military. The land-based anti-ship missile system scored a direct hit during trials, validating mobile coastal defense capabilities intended for Taiwan's anti-surface warfare inventory. Naval News · 28 Aug 2026Taiwan-Bound Harpoon Coastal Defense System Scores Direct Hit in US Navy Test
Systems Warfare and Environmental Contingencies
Taiwanese defense analyst Chen Chia-sheng of the Institute for National Defence and Security Research warned that People's Liberation Army operational doctrine has shifted toward systems destruction warfare integrating artificial intelligence, communications, and logistics. Simultaneously, defense planners in Taiwan, Japan, and the United States incorporated extreme heat and typhoon risks into military mobilization assessments and supply chain resilience plans. News - South China Morning Post · 30 Aug 2026PLA shift to systems warfare means Taiwan’s defences need to change: expertsNews - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026How typhoons and extreme weather could undermine Taiwan Strait combat readiness
Diplomatic Financial Operations
The Taiwanese government maintained legal debt recovery actions against Caribbean nations including St. Vincent and the Grenadines following past diplomatic realignments toward Beijing. Taiwan currently retains formal diplomatic recognition from 12 sovereign states, including four in the Caribbean region. News - South China Morning Post · 28 Aug 2026Taipei’s debt hardball carries a clear warning for its remaining allies
Assessment
High-level command restructuring within China's military, ongoing U.S. weapon system validations for Taiwan, and doctrinal shifts toward multi-domain systems warfare reflect sustained strategic competition across the Taiwan Strait without indicators of active conflict.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
2 more
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.