← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Iran War
Iran – Israel, USA, Gulf conflict
- Iranian Defense Ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik announced Iran is expanding defense-industrial production to replenish strategic weapon stocks used in recent conflicts. Tehran Times · 30 Aug 2026Iran rebuilds defense-industrial capacity after recent conflicts: Defense Ministry
- The United States Treasury cut UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr off from direct U.S. financial access over alleged transactions involving Iranian capital. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026US targets Egyptian bank in first strike of economic war against Iran
- Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi denied reports that Army Chief Asim Munir visited Tehran as an envoy for United States President Donald Trump. Tehran Times · 29 Aug 2026Pakistan calls claims army chief recently visited Iran as Trump envoy ‘factually incorrect’
- Pirates hijacked two commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden during a broader surge in regional piracy linked to waterway disruptions from the Iran war. BBC News · 28 Aug 2026Somali piracy surges as the impact of the US-Iran war ripples outwards
- The United States Department of the Treasury suspended a sanctions authorization permitting Iranian access to international academic tests including TOEFL and GRE. Iran International · 30 Aug 2026Iran sanctions reach education: Duolingo blocked, TOEFL and GRE in doubt
Third-Country Banking Sanctions
The U.S. Department of the Treasury severed direct financial access for the UAE branches of Egypt's Banque Misr as part of Operation Economic Outcast, expanding enforcement against third-country financial institutions processing Iranian assets across commercial hubs in Dubai, Istanbul, and Baghdad. Iran International · 28 Aug 2026US targets Egyptian bank in first strike of economic war against IranIran International · 29 Aug 2026Washington’s economic war on Iran starts in Dubai, not Beijing
Pakistani Regional Mediation
Pakistani Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi clarified that Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Tehran alongside Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi as an independent mediator to advance the June interim framework, denying claims that Munir acted as a direct envoy for U.S. President Donald Trump. Tehran Times · 29 Aug 2026Pakistan calls claims army chief recently visited Iran as Trump envoy ‘factually incorrect’
Iranian Defense Industrial Stockpiles
Defense Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Reza Talaei-Nik confirmed that Iran initiated efforts to rebuild strategic weapons stocks and expand indigenous manufacturing resilience following military strikes that affected 25 provinces during recent direct conflicts. Tehran Times · 30 Aug 2026Iran rebuilds defense-industrial capacity after recent conflicts: Defense Ministry
Gulf Maritime Spillover
Heightened naval blockades around the Strait of Hormuz driven by ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities precipitated a surge in Somali piracy in the Gulf of Aden, where armed groups hijacked two cargo vessels last week and drew counter-piracy drone strikes. BBC News · 28 Aug 2026Somali piracy surges as the impact of the US-Iran war ripples outwards
Assessment
Sustained U.S. financial isolation measures and Iranian military replenishment efforts preserve high theater tension, while independent diplomatic initiatives move slowly against rigid political conditions.
- 2026-08-24
US Treasury announces secondary sanctions campaign targeting Iranian trade
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a secondary sanctions campaign targeting third-party entities conducting trade with Iran.
- 2026-08-22
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed an airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani.
Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that an overnight airstrike killed Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. Iranian officials have not confirmed the reported loss.
- 2026-08-19
UAE suspends trade and financial relations with Iran following reported missile launches.
The United Arab Emirates imposed an indefinite trade embargo and financial freeze on Iran after detecting two ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory. Tehran denied responsibility for the attack, while commercial maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely constrained.
4 more
- 2026-08-17
U.S. and Iran fail to reach broad agreement as diplomatic deadline expires.
The June Memorandum of Understanding between Washington and Tehran expired on August 17 without a broad peace agreement. Direct and indirect negotiations deadlocked over Strait of Hormuz maritime blockade enforcement and ceasefire terms.
- 2026-08-14
US Navy deploys USS George Washington to the Middle East
The U.S. Navy deployed the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to relieve the long-deployed USS Abraham Lincoln.
- 2026-08-13
United States enforces Hormuz blockade while Tehran rejects American control claims
US CENTCOM forces redirected dozens of commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz as part of active blockade measures. Iranian officials disputed assertions of complete US control while commercial maritime transit through the chokepoint dropped to multi-month lows.
- 2026-08-12
Iran reports no progress in peace talks with U.S. amid Hormuz dispute
Iran stated that no progress has been made toward reviving an interim peace agreement with the United States. Negotiations remain stalled over maritime access and naval enforcement within the Strait of Hormuz.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is Iran at war with Israel and the United States?
There is no declared war. Iran and Israel have exchanged direct military strikes, United States forces are engaged in the region, and the pressure extends to sanctions and to shipping through the Gulf. The index sits high because that fighting is real, not because war has been declared. Iran, Israel and the United States all appear as conflict parties in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification — the strikes register as interstate hostilities even without a declared war. The index reads 77/100 as of 1 January 1970 (full-scale war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf situation right now?
The index reads 77/100 — full-scale war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Iran and Israel, USA, Gulf risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.