← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: India – Pakistan Conflict
India – Pakistan conflict
- Russia submitted a Rs 50,000 crore proposal to India for five additional S-400 air defense squadrons. Times of India · 30 Aug 2026Russia bids Rs 50,000 crore for 5 more S-400 squadrons to boost India’s air defence
- Defense ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan arranged their first meeting under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 30 Aug 2026Turkish, Saudi, Pakistani ministers to hold first defence pact meeting
- An Indian court issued a non-bailable warrant for Lashkar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed over the 2025 Pahalgam attack. Times of India · 30 Aug 2026Kabul, Kashmir, Mumbai, Pahalgam: Hafiz Saeed’s deadly four-decade terror trail
- The United States signed a sales agreement to provide FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles to the Indian Army. Dawn - Home · 28 Aug 2026India signs deal with US to buy Javelin anti-tank missile systems
- Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir inspected ammunition test trials at the Pakistan Ordnance Factories complex in Wah. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 29 Aug 2026Army chief Munir visits Pakistan's largest defence industrial complex
Air Defense Procurement
Russia submitted a Rs 50,000 crore proposal to India's Ministry of Defence to supply five additional S-400 Triumf long-range air defense squadrons. The bid aligns with India's March 2026 decision following Operation Sindoor to expand its air defense network and acquire over 280 interceptor missiles. Times of India · 30 Aug 2026Russia bids Rs 50,000 crore for 5 more S-400 squadrons to boost India’s air defence
Trilateral Defense Partnership
Defense ministers from Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan scheduled their first meeting under the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement. The pact establishes mutual defense obligations among the three nations in the event of external military aggression against any member. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 30 Aug 2026Turkish, Saudi, Pakistani ministers to hold first defence pact meeting
Legal Action on Cross-Border Attacks
A special court under India's National Investigation Agency issued a non-bailable warrant against Lashkar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Muhammad Saeed over the April 2025 Pahalgam attack. Mumbai Police simultaneously initiated trial-in-absentia proceedings against Saeed and five other Pakistan-based operatives regarding the 2008 Mumbai strikes. Times of India · 30 Aug 2026Kabul, Kashmir, Mumbai, Pahalgam: Hafiz Saeed’s deadly four-decade terror trail
Armaments and Production
The United States Embassy in New Delhi announced a sales agreement to supply FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank guided missile systems manufactured by Lockheed Martin and RTX to the Indian Army. Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir conducted an operational evaluation of ammunition trials and industrial corporatization at the Pakistan Ordnance Factories in Wah. World News Today: International News Headlines - The Hindu | The Hindu · 29 Aug 2026Army chief Munir visits Pakistan's largest defence industrial complexDawn - Home · 28 Aug 2026India signs deal with US to buy Javelin anti-tank missile systems
Assessment
Bilateral military posture remains stable under the May 2025 ceasefire while both states advance defense acquisitions and judicial actions.
- 2026-08-22
Indian Army raises first dedicated drone battalion along Pakistan border
The Indian Army established its first dedicated drone unit, the Baaz Battalion, deployed along the international border with Pakistan.
- 2026-08-19
Pakistan summons US diplomat over ambassador's remarks on Jammu and Kashmir
Pakistan's Foreign Ministry summoned the US chargé d'affaires after US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor visited Srinagar and described Jammu and Kashmir as an important part of India.
- 2026-08-12
West Bengal police arrest suspected Pakistani national on military spying allegations
Indian security forces detained a suspected Pakistani national near the India-Bangladesh border in West Bengal on charges of conducting military intelligence activities using fraudulent documents. Authorities stated the suspect had been residing illegally in India while gathering information on military and transportation assets.
4 more
- 2026-08-12
India designates Attari as e-visa entry point while maintaining restrictions on Pakistani travelers
India updated its e-visa immigration framework to include eleven new entry points, including the Attari land crossing on the Pakistan border. Officials emphasized that travel restrictions and strict vetting for Pakistani nationals remain in effect following the April 2025 diplomatic measures.
- 2026-08-12
Indian security forces arrest suspected Pakistani operative in West Bengal near border
West Bengal Special Task Force officers detained a suspected Pakistani national carrying forged Indian identification documents near the Bangladesh border. Authorities reported the individual had resided illegally in India and initiated investigations into potential intelligence links.
- 2026-08-12
India adds Attari crossing to e-visa network while tightening border infrastructure personnel rules.
- 2026-08-11
Indian security agencies issue alerts over potential cross-border threats ahead of Independence Day.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are India and Pakistan at war?
No open war. Two nuclear-armed neighbours with a disputed border in Kashmir, recurring cross-border incidents and insurgent violence, and a history of four wars since 1947. In the worldwide legal classification India and Pakistan each appear only for internal conflicts — Maoist insurgency, the TTP, Balochistan — never for a conflict with each other. The index reads 11/100 as of 1 January 1970 (friction), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the India and Pakistan situation right now?
The index reads 11/100 — friction. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the India and Pakistan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.