← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: China – Taiwan Tensions
China – Taiwan conflict
▲ STALE FEED — last run failed validation for this theater; showing most recent verified entry.
- US manufacturer Anduril Industries delivered 291 Altius-600M loitering munitions to Taiwan without required battery chargers. News - South China Morning Post · 14 Sep 2026Taiwan defence logistics under fire over missing chargers for US drones
- Taiwan's Ministry of Defense awarded an 850 million dollar procurement contract for 2,032 American attack and reconnaissance drones. News - South China Morning Post · 14 Sep 2026Taiwan defence logistics under fire over missing chargers for US drones
- US defense contractor Shield AI increased its Taiwanese component procurement to 16 percent to reduce supply chain dependence on China. Taipei Times · 14 Sep 2026Taiwan key for a China-free drone supply: source
- Social media imagery indicated PLA Eastern Theater Command units fielded a laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle to counter potential drone swarms. News - South China Morning Post · 12 Sep 2026Why PLA’s laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle could matter in a Taiwan conflict
- PRC Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning lodged diplomatic protests with Italy and the European Union over Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's travel. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
US Drone Deliveries and Supply Chains
Operational integration of American loitering munitions faces immediate hurdles in Taiwan following revelations that 291 newly delivered Altius-600M drones arrived without charging equipment, requiring US assistance to operate. Concurrently, Western defense manufacturers like Shield AI are expanding Taiwanese hardware integration to 25 percent of drone value to eliminate PRC components from military supply chains. News - South China Morning Post · 14 Sep 2026Taiwan defence logistics under fire over missing chargers for US dronesTaipei Times · 14 Sep 2026Taiwan key for a China-free drone supply: source
PLA Counter-Drone Laser Systems
The PLA Eastern Theater Command's 73rd Group Army is fielding mobile short-range air defense capabilities designed to shield amphibious mechanized units from defensive drone swarms. Unverified social media imagery showed a Type 19 eight-wheeled armored vehicle featuring a turret-mounted directed-energy laser weapon alongside its primary autocannon, highlighting Beijing's focus on mitigating asymmetric attrition during potential cross-Strait landings. News - South China Morning Post · 12 Sep 2026Why PLA’s laser-equipped Type 19 vehicle could matter in a Taiwan conflict
European Diplomatic Representations
Beijing is Demanding European nations prevent diplomatic contacts with Taiwanese executive leadership. Following Taiwanese Vice President Hsiao Bi-khim's trip to attend an international forum in Italy, PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning lodged formal representations against both Rome and the European Union, framing high-level Taiwanese travel as an illicit effort to solicit foreign support. News - South China Morning Post · 11 Sep 2026Beijing lodges diplomatic protests over Taiwan official’s visit to Italy
Japanese Military Logistics Hub
Defense infrastructure projects in Japan, including a consolidated logistics and maintenance facility acquired in Kure, Hiroshima prefecture, aim to sustain long-term operational readiness near the Taiwan Strait. Tokyo continues to expand regional sustainment capabilities despite facing domestic labor shortages and budgetary constraints.
Assessment
Incremental military hardware adjustments, drone supply chain reconfigurations, and diplomatic friction over Taiwanese official travel maintain elevated regional readiness without indicating imminent cross-Strait kinetic escalation.
- 2026-09-04
Top US and Chinese theater commanders meet to restore military communications
PLA Eastern Theater Command General Yang Zhibin met U.S. Admiral Samuel Paparo in Canada to restore senior military communication channels.
- 2026-08-28
China removes Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from the Central Military Commission
The National People's Congress Standing Committee removed former generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli from China's Central Military Commission.
- 2026-08-22
Taiwan receives its first F-16V Block 70 fighter aircraft from the United States
The Republic of China Air Force took delivery of its initial F-16V Block 70 fighter jets supplied by the United States. The aircraft delivery updates Taiwan's air defense fleet amidst persistent air and naval pressure around the island.
3 more
- 2026-08-20
Taiwan proposes record $35 billion defense budget for 2027
Taiwan's executive branch proposed an 18 percent increase in defense spending for 2027, reaching a record $35 billion. The proposal prioritizes uncrewed systems and asymmetric warfare capabilities to counter PLA military activities.
- 2026-08-12
China announces a joint naval exercise with Indonesia in waters east of Taiwan.
- 2026-08-11
Taiwan simulates invasion defense and communications throttling during major military exercises.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Are China and Taiwan at war?
No. There is no armed conflict. China claims Taiwan and applies sustained military and economic pressure — air and naval activity around the island, exercises, and coercion short of force — while Taiwan builds its defences. Not an armed conflict under international humanitarian law: none of the 102 conflicts in Geneva Academy's classification involves China and Taiwan. The index tracks the risk, not a war. The index reads 21/100 as of 1 January 1970 (coercive pressure), on a scale where 50 and above is reserved for fighting actually under way.
How dangerous is the China and Taiwan situation right now?
The index reads 21/100 — coercive pressure. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the China and Taiwan risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.