← WW3 RISK TRACKER / THEATER: Russia – Ukraine War
Russia – Ukraine war
- Ukrainian long-range drones struck Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast. Kyiv Post · 15 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Aircraft Plant and Ozon Facility in Massive Overnight AttackThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 15 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces reportedly strike Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery
- Russian drone strikes across Ukraine killed 11 civilians over a 24-hour period. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 15 Sep 2026Russian forces kill 11, injure 64 across Ukraine over past day, hit diesel locomotive close to Polish border
- A Ukrainian RAM-2X loitering munition destroyed a Russian Nebo-M radar system near Millerovo airfield. Ukrainska Pravda · 15 Sep 2026Ukrainian RAM-2X drone strikes US$100m Russian radar – video
- A Russian warship fired emergency flares at a Danish military helicopter in the Baltic Sea. World news | The Guardian · 15 Sep 2026Nato jets shoot down drone violating Lithuania’s airspace
- Russian strike networks utilized signal relay stations located inside Belarus to guide long-range drones. The Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 14 Sep 2026Russia using Belarusian LTE networks, relay stations for mass drone attacks on Ukraine, Kyiv saysUkrinform · 15 Sep 2026Recent drone strikes on Western Ukraine supported by relays from Belarusian territory — Demchenko
Sustained Energy Infrastructure Warfare
Ukrainian long-range operations targeted state-owned oil refining and drone manufacturing capacity inside Russia, hitting the AVT-6 primary processing unit at Rosneft's Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast and the Atlant Aero plant in Taganrog. Ukrainian forces also destroyed a Nebo-M radar system supporting drone operations at Millerovo airfield. Russian strikes targeted civilian infrastructure across Ukraine, hitting power distribution nodes, gas stations, and commercial data centers in Kyiv, killing 11 civilians nationwide. Kyiv Post · 15 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Aircraft Plant and Ozon Facility in Massive Overnight AttackThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 15 Sep 2026Russian forces kill 11, injure 64 across Ukraine over past day, hit diesel locomotive close to Polish borderThe Kyiv Independent - News from Ukraine, Eastern Europe · 15 Sep 2026Ukrainian forces reportedly strike Russia's Syzran Oil Refinery
Energy Ceasefire Diplomatic Friction
Public statements from Washington regarding a mutual agreement to halt strikes on energy infrastructure exposed tactical disagreements between the combatants. Ukrainian leadership stated that conditional commitments depend on verified guarantees regarding critical grid security. Russian forces maintained daily long-range salvos against Ukrainian municipal utilities ahead of winter. Kyiv Post · 15 Sep 2026Ukraine Strikes Russian Refinery, Aircraft Plant and Ozon Facility in Massive Overnight AttackUkrainska Pravda · 15 Sep 2026Zelenskyy: Russia hits Ukraine's energy system, we retaliateMeduza.io · 15 Sep 2026Ukrainian military strikes Ozon warehouse and oil refinery in Russia
Baltic Sea NATO Escalation
A Russian warship directed flares at a Danish military helicopter in the Baltic Sea. NATO aircraft intercepted an unidentified drone in Lithuanian airspace. These maritime and aerial interactions prompted Polish fighter scrambles and official condemnations from Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. World news | The Guardian · 15 Sep 2026Nato jets shoot down drone violating Lithuania’s airspace
Cross-Border Transit and Relays
Russian drone strikes along western Ukrainian transport corridors near the Polish border damaged rail locomotives and border fuel facilities. Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that Russian long-range drone flight paths through northern Ukrainian airspace rely on Long Term Evolution mobile networks and physical signal repeaters situated on Belarusian territory. Kyiv Post · 15 Sep 2026Drone Attacks in the Ukrainian-Polish Border RegionNews | Euronews RSS · 14 Sep 2026Drone strikes hit key Ukraine-Poland supply route, sparking border firesNews | Euronews RSS · 14 Sep 2026Poland and Ukraine slam Russian strike on train near their border as 'escalation'
Assessment
Russian deep-strike campaigns continue targeting Ukrainian civilian energy and transit nodes, whereas Ukrainian strikes focus on interdicting Russian defense industrial and military facilities.
- 2026-09-10
Ukrainian forces conduct record 3,000-kilometer strike on a Siberian gas plant.
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces struck the Novy Urengoy Gas Condensate Treatment Plant in Russia's Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, marking Kyiv's deepest strike of the war. The facility processes 19.5 million tons of crude oil and natural gas annually to supply fuel for Russian military operations.
- 2026-08-21
Russia deploys over 8,000 North Korean troops to combat operations
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia deployed over 8,000 North Korean troops, including drone operators, to support combat operations.
- 2026-08-19
Ukrainian parliament approves General Khmara as Defense Minister
Ukraine's parliament approved General Khmara as Defense Minister with 312 votes in favor.
4 more
- 2026-08-19
Russia and Ukraine execute prisoner exchange of 103 soldiers each
Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner exchange, returning 103 captured soldiers to each nation.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian strikes target Novorossiysk port, damaging Russian warships and grain export terminals
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks struck Russia's major Black Sea port at Novorossiysk, damaging four warships and grain export terminals while reportedly causing three casualties.
- 2026-08-12
Ukraine reports retaking 745 square kilometers of territory during ongoing operations this year
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces liberated 745 square kilometers and 26 settlements over an eight-month period. The announcement coincided with continued long-range drone strikes against Russian oil and logistics targets.
- 2026-08-12
Ukrainian long-range drone strikes force the shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery.
A Ukrainian drone attack reportedly triggered the operational shutdown of a major Russian oil refinery alongside strikes on logistical infrastructure. The operations form part of an escalated Ukrainian campaign against key energy and economic facilities inside Russia.
COMMON QUESTIONS
Is there a war between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and the war is ongoing. Ukraine is defending its own territory. Under international humanitarian law this is an international armed conflict, with parts of Ukraine under Russian military occupation — one of 102 armed conflicts in Geneva Academy's worldwide classification. The index reads 96/100 as of 1 January 1970 (total war); above 50 it grades the fighting itself rather than the risk of it.
How dangerous is the Russia and Ukraine situation right now?
The index reads 96/100 — total war. The scale is anchored on 22 historical episodes from 1914 to 2005, so the number means the same thing from one theater to the next. It is a measurement of what is reported, not a forecast.
How is the Russia and Ukraine risk index calculated?
By fixed formula from open-source reporting: events are extracted and graded by how well evidenced they are, scored across weighted factors, and the model never picks the number. How the index works, and what it does not measure, is explained at wwiii.report/methodology.
How often is this updated?
Every day. The report is rebuilt from that day's reporting and the index re-judged from it, and a fall is published only once the evidence confirms it.
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
Timeline events — hover the chart to read them
One 0–100 scale for the whole conflict. 0–49 is escalation before war; 50–100 is active war and how far it has gone.
50 is not a threshold the number can cross on its own. Which side a theater sits on is decided by whether verified belligerents are fighting there, so war onset always moves the score up across 50 — the number never declares a war by climbing.
It is a stage, not a probability: 42 is not a 42% chance of war. Below 50 it grades movement toward war, above 50 the war itself.
Why it moved, under the chart, names what changed in the latest move: the day’s readings — strikes, casualties, talks — and, when the conflict’s stage was re-judged, what was graded differently and the events behind it. Open it for the detail.
Re-judged from open reporting by fixed formula — the model never picks a number — and a fall publishes only once the evidence confirms it. A dot on the line is a day the stage itself moved. How it is made →
Direction — which way the week pushed. Severity — where the index sits. Connections — how much of the rest a shock here reaches. Cascade — that reach combined with how ready this theater is to go off.
The index reads the state of the conflict, not the volume of news. Each run grades the factors listed below against fixed rubrics, and the score follows by formula.
So a dramatic headline moves nothing unless it changes a grade. A theater already graded for recurring incursions absorbs one more without moving — it is priced in.
Open How this was measured for every grade, its movement since the last run, and the events behind it. Full construction →
A different measurement from the score above, from a different source. This line counts how much of the world's news reports conflict between these two states, against their own long-run normal: 100 is normal, 200 is twice the usual level.
It is computed mechanically from the GDELT Project's open event stream every 15 minutes and never touches the assessed index above — when both move together, that agreement is the signal. A day with too few events shows no reading rather than a guess. Click the chart for the full history.
Data: the GDELT Project.